NC gas prices began falling in July and hit a milestone this week. How long will it last?

North Carolinians haven’t spent less than $3 a gallon for gas very often in recent years, but it’s becoming much more common now.

The average price per gallon of regular unleaded dipped below $3 statewide this week for the first time since last winter, according to AAA . It extends a downward trend that began in early July and is expected to continue well into the fall.

The price of diesel has also come down, averaging $3.55 a gallon statewide, the lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Oil prices inched up a bit this week on concerns about Hurricane Francine’s impact on production along the Gulf of Mexico. But the overall trend has been down, as economies and demand for oil weaken around the world.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency , the price of West Texas intermediate crude oil was $68.58 per barrel on Sept. 6, 2024, nearly $6 lower than the week before and $19 lower than a year ago.

The national average of regular unleaded was $3.24 on Thursday, according to AAA, down 15% or 60 cents a gallon from a year ago.

With summer driving season ended and cheaper winter blends of gas reaching stations later this month, pump prices will likely continue to fall, according to Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at the website GasBuddy.com .

“While many Americans may wish summer could last forever, the good news is we’re seeing perhaps the best opportunity in years for the national average to fall below $3 per gallon,” De Haan wrote on his blog just before Labor Day weekend. “As we get closer to Thanksgiving, we should see tens of thousands of stations ultimately fall back below that level, all thanks to falling seasonal demand and cheaper winter gasoline, which is right around the corner.”

Oil is a global commodity, and the price of gas in North Carolina can depend on supply and demand and production changes around the world. Gas prices spiked after Russian invaded Ukraine in February 2022, then, propelled by strong post-pandemic demand , peaked at $4.67 a gallon in North Carolina that summer.

Since then, statewide averages have briefly dipped below $3 only twice, in December 2022 and December 2023. Thursday’s average was $2.97 a gallon, the lowest since late January and more than 50 cents cheaper than the same day last year.

Prices vary within the state, from less than $2.80 a gallon on average in Pitt, Wayne and several other Eastern North Carolina counties, to more than $3.23 in Durham and Orange counties.

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