The National Hurricane Center is now tracking four tropical disturbances, including two that could affect Florida over the weekend or early next week.
Hurricane Kirk is a Category 4 hurricane with 130-mph winds with intensity fluctuation possible tonight. Large swells from Kirk could bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to the East Coast of the U.S. by Sunday.
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The other system that could affect Florida is the disturbance forecasters have been watching all week: a trough of low pressure in the Caribbean Sea that has now moved into the Gulf of Mexico. A tropical or subtropical depression or storm that, as of the 8 p.m. tropical outlook, us likely to form late this weekend or early next week, depending on environmental conditions, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
"Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula late this weekend into next week," the Hurricane Center said. See the latest forecast and radar across Florida.
Also in the Atlantic basin — which consists of the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico — is Tropical Storm Leslie, which could become a hurricane not expected tonight or Saturday, is not expected to affect Florida or the U.S.
At 2 p.m., the National Hurricane Center issued an advisory on a new tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa early next week.
The next named storms in the Atlantic hurricane season will be Milton and Nadine.
Is there a hurricane coming to Florida?
At this time, a hurricane is not expected to hit Florida, but it's still not outside the realm of possibilities.
A tropical or subtropical depression or storm is likely to form late this weekend or early next week in the Gulf of Mexico, depending on environmental conditions, according to the Hurricane Center.
"While the exact track and intensity of the feature unfolding in the gulf have yet to be determined, Florida will bear the brunt this time around," said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.
"While the activity is still not organized, nearly every indicator suggests that a feature will form in the southwestern Gulf from late this weekend to the middle of next week and track northeastward and across the Florida Peninsula," AccuWeather said.
"At this time, the intensity will range from a sprawling tropical rainstorm to perhaps a strike from a more compact, full-blown hurricane," Rayno said.
Here's the latest update from the National Hurricane Center as of 5 p.m. Friday, Oct. 4:
Hurricane Kirk: What you should know
- Location : 960 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands; 1,645 miles west-southwest of the Azores
- Maximum sustained winds : 130 mph
- Movement : northwest at 12 mph
➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Kirk
At 5 p.m., the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 49.4 West.
Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph.
A turn toward the north and northeast at a faster forward speed is anticipated over the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are now near 130 mph with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Small intensity fluctuations are possible today and tonight.
Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and continue through early next week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles.
Impacts: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are expected to reach the Leeward Islands later today, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on Sunday, and the Azores on Monday.
Tropical Storm Leslie: What you should know
- Location : 695 miles west-southwest of Cabo Verde Islands
- Maximum sustained winds : 70 mph
- Movement : west-northwest at 7 mph
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Leslie
At 5 p.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 10.3 North, longitude 33.6 West.
Leslie is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday.
A turn toward the northwest and an increase in forward speed is expected early Sunday into Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast, and Leslie is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.
Impacts: No impacts to land are expected.
What else is out there and how likely is it to strengthen?
Gulf of Mexico: A trough of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread shower and thunderstorm activity.
A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop from this system over the southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two, and additional subsequent development is possible while the low moves slowly eastward or northeastward.
➤ Tropical threat in Gulf of Mexico could hit Florida with 3 to 30 inches of rain
A tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form could form during the early to middle part of next week if the low remains separate from a frontal boundary that is forecast to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week.
Impacts: Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula late this weekend into next week.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 30 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: high, 70 percent.
Far eastern tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of Africa on Monday or Tuesday.
Some development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Hurricane Kirk is expected to stay in the central Atlantic but swells from the storm are expected to reach the east coast of the U.S. and Bahamas Sunday, bringing life-threatening surf and dangerous rip currents.
All residents along the Gulf Coast, including Florida, should watch the system moving into the Gulf of Mexico , according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
Heavy rainfall, up to 3 inches in some areas, are likely for Central and South Florida between Sunday and Tuesday, Truchelut said.
Many inches to a foot or more of rain may fall in some locations, with the most rainfall likely to be from Interstate 4 south to the Keys, according to AccuWeather. Some locations could get up to 30 inches of rain.
Tropical Storm Leslie and the tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa next week are still too far from the U.S. to determine whether there will be any impacts to Florida or the U.S. but none are expected at this time.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
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When is hurricane season over?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season was Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
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(This story was updated to add new information.)
This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: National Hurricane Center tracking 4 systems in tropics. Latest info on possible Florida impacts
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