Oklahoma and August – name a hotter duo.
As the National Weather Service issues regular heat advisories warning residents about the dangers of intense sun on hot days with the heat index above 100 degrees , it seems like the cool, breezy days of fall can't get here soon enough.
So when will "cooler" temperatures arrive in Oklahoma, and what can we expect for the 2024-2025 season? Although it's difficult to accurately predict, one strong guidepost for anticipating seasonal weather is the El Niño and La Niña oscillation , the weather system that's triggered when waters of the Pacific Ocean are warmer or cooler than average.
Climate scientists expect La Niña to fully settle in this fall as ocean temps continue to remain below average. In Oklahoma, La Niña usually makes it warmer and drier.
No bueno.
How does La Niña affect Oklahoma temperatures?
A lot has been said about how La Niña conditions this year have raised the chances for a very busy hurricane season.
But La Niña has a wider impact than providing ideal conditions for a developing tropical cyclone. It also has a diverse impact on weather across the United States.
In Oklahoma, La Niña usually brings dry and warm winters, according to the National Weather Service and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In the Pacific Northwest, it's wetter and cooler.
While the oscillation between climate patterns is usually a short-lived phenomenon, La Niña persisted for three years between 2020 and 2023 . In Oklahoma, it created devastating drought conditions with one of the worst wheat harvests the state had seen in years .
Here are the early predictions for what the winter months may bring this year.
Temperature outlook for Oklahoma
Use the slider to compare the outlook for October-December 2024 with January-March 2025.
NOAA is predicting Oklahoma will have a higher chance of seeing above-average temperatures this fall and early winter. After the New Year, however, we'll see a roughly equal chances of temps being above or below average.
How dry will Oklahoma be this fall and winter?
Use the slider to compare the precipitation outlook for October-December 2024 with January-March 2025.
NOAA's seasonal precipitation outlook leans toward below average precipitation when it comes to rain or snow this winter. And like the temperature outlook, the start of 2025 will likely be closer to the average.
When does it get cold in Oklahoma?
In Oklahoma City, the hottest month on average is July, but only slightly above August. The average temperature begins to noticeably dip in September.
As an example, here are 30 years of temperature averages for the OKC area according to the Oklahoma Mesonet :
- January: 40 degrees
- February: 43 degrees
- March: 52 degrees
- April: 60 degrees
- May: 69 degrees
- June: 77 degrees
- July: 82 degrees
- August: 81 degrees
- September: 73 degrees
- October: 62 degrees
- November: 50 degrees
- December: 41 degrees
As for 2024, it's hard to say when the air will cool down. August temps are very likely to remain above average . And with La Niña keeping things dry and warm for at least a few months, it'll be a while before we feel that comfortable Oklahoma autumn.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: When will Oklahoma see cooler temps? Here's what you can expect for winter 2024-2025
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