COVID-19 cases on verge of decline but back-to-school infections could keep rates high, experts warn

The summer surge of COVID-19 appears to be on the verge of decline, but health experts warn rates could remain elevated with kids returning to school.

“Without masking and strict hand-washing, the summer surge will get worse with kids going back to school,” said Dr. Gary Green, an infectious disease expert with Sutter Santa Rosa Regional Hospital.

Dr. Tanya Phares, Sonoma County’s health officer, said the county is starting to see a downward trend in COVID-19 viral detection in samples of local wastewater.

“If we want this trend to continue then we need to remain diligent in our preventive measures against respiratory viruses,” Phares said Friday in an email. “This is particularly important as students begin to return to school.”

On Monday, Green said COVID-19 positive “swab tests” among youth were almost twice the overall rate of all Sutter patients in the Santa Rosa region.

He said the positivity rate, the share of swabs that result positive, for kids in Santa Rosa is 20%. It’s 11.5% for all patients currently tested for COVID-19. For elderly patients, it’s 14%.

Green said the current summer surge started early and has pretty much lasted the entire summer. He said infection rates are beginning to decline slightly but he expects they will climb again with children returning to the classroom, resulting in a “double hump” of COVID-19 transmission.

But Green pointed out that COVID-19 illness is not dangerous for most kids. The danger, he said, is like with the flu, children are often key “vectors” for COVID-19 transmission.

“Kids do well with flu and they’ll probably do well with COVID-19,” he said. “The question is will they take it into other populations that are more vulnerable.”

Wastewater detection of the COVID-19 virus ‒ currently the most widely used metric for detecting viral transmission ‒ remains elevated in the Santa Rosa sewer system, Phares said. Detection levels were at 57% of their maximum historical value as of Aug. 8, the most recent data set available, she said.

“We are currently observing an overall decreasing trend in COVID-19 detection since the peak recorded on July 20th, where detection was at 90% of its historical maximum,” Phares said in her email.

In Napa County, wastewater surveillance of COVID-19 also appears to be declining slightly. The level of SARS-CoV-2 in the Napa sewer shed is about 1.5 times what it was last year at this time, according to the nationwide WastewaterSCAN network .

WastewaterSCAN lists COVID-19 detection levels at the Soscol Water Recycling Facility in Napa as “low,” while in Santa Rosa detection levels are listed as “moderate.”

Phares said half of the hospitals in Sonoma County reported 98 COVID-19 patients in the hospital during the month of July. All of these cases were adults and 80% were adults 65 or older.

Phares has said that one of the reasons COVID-19 is currently surging is because of low vaccination rates among local residents. Currently only 23.6% of Sonoma County residents are up-to-date with their recommended COVID-19 vaccinations, she added.

The health officer reminded local residents that the start of school brings with it a new respiratory virus season this fall.

She said families and school staff should take steps to stay healthy and avoid respiratory illnesses, such as COVID-19, the flu and respiratory syncytial virus.

These steps at home and at school include staying up to date on vaccinations; practicing good hygiene, encouraging frequent hand washing, sanitizing and disinfecting surfaces at school; encouraging adequate air flow and ventilation; encouraging kids to cover their mouth when they cough or sneeze.

Editor’s Note: This story has been updated to include COVID-19 testing data at Sutter Santa Rosa Regional Hospital.

You can reach Staff Writer Martin Espinoza at 707-521-5213 or martin.espinoza@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @pressreno.