Fleeing from a wildfire is terrifying and can be deadly. Now is the time to plan | Opinion

It’s been a brutal year for wildfires in California. As we have seen in the past , when communities are unprepared for today’s bigger, hotter fires, the results can be tragic. However, a new form of planning—evacuation preparedness studies—is emerging to help communities prepare for our new reality.

Simply put, communities have to plan to quickly flea to safer ground rather than pray an organized escape actually happens when disaster is about to strike. We have to really analyze the challenge. And a community has to literally rehearse its evacuation to be truly prepared.

The key is partnership - bringing together teams of urban planners, engineers and community members to identify and address wildfire risks results in a coordinated evacuation plan that serves an entire community. By examining different angles of a community’s wildfire response—including roadway capacity, communications coordination, and the unique needs of vulnerable residents—we can create specific and unique plans that save lives.

In California, Placerville is a wonderful case study .

This vital community in El Dorado County recently completed an evacuation preparedness plan, to good effect. Like so much of the West, Placerville’s hotter, drier summers and years of drought have made it particularly vulnerable to wildfire, increasing the risks to both residents and the many tourists who flock to Placerville during “Apple Hill season.”

Placerville leaders realized last year that the community’s vulnerabilities in a wildfire included transportation bottlenecks on Highway 50 and Highway 49 that could slow an evacuation. To address it, they mounted an extensive community-wide planning process, involving local experts from a variety of different jurisdictions and residents to create an effective and data-driven evacuation plan.

This engagement took two forms: an advisory group that included representatives from emergency response, transportation agencies, utilities, and local government; and a series of workshops involving residents and local community groups.

The local and state government advisory group focused on the need to establish reliable communications as well as the area’s limited evacuation routes. This group analyzed Placerville’s geography and terrain, and mapped the neighborhoods where vulnerable populations were concentrated, including a large permanent population of senior citizens.

The result was the staging of four mock wildfire scenarios, coordinated by Cal Fire (the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection), El Dorado County Fire and the El Dorado County Sheriff’s Office of Emergency Services. The team relied on multiple data sources — including census household data, state transportation data and estimated visitor and worker populations during peak tourist season — to understand the evacuation demand for a fire scenario impacting the region.

Evacuation scenarios were analyzed using an innovative dynamic traffic model that simulated vehicle queuing and route choices to capture both constraints and impacts of driver behavior during an evacuation event. The result was a detailed understanding of the timing of potential evacuations and how the local roadway network could — or could not — accommodate traffic. This allowed the team to develop ways to improve traffic flow in an evacuation, including directional road closures, manual traffic flagging, future infrastructure improvements and using the existing highway shoulder as an additional lane.

At the community workshops and events, local and state officials were open with the public about the area’s fire risks, and listened to people’s concerns. Part of the outreach process included identifying those who would be disproportionately impacted by wildfires: people living in retirement homes, people of color, non-English speakers, the geographically isolated and residents in low-income households.

Recently, the region’s evacuation preparedness study was officially adopted by the El Dorado County Transportation Commission Board, giving the community specific recommendations for more effective evacuations that can be utilized today and tomorrow. The plan also identifies infrastructure upgrades, emergency resources, and communication systems that will be needed in the coming years. Local officials are already identifying potential funding sources to realize these improvements.

While we cannot stop the wildfires of the future, with collaboration and smart action, communities can be better prepared. Placerville’s evacuation preparedness work is an example for the rest of California how to build local resiliency and save lives in the face of more frequent wildfires.