The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances for development of a system of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico.
A tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form during the early to middle part of next week, depending on environmental conditions, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Regardless of development, the system is expected to heavy rain over much of Florida's Peninsula late this weekend into next week, which is especially bad news for the areas still recovering from the damage — including flooding and storm surge — left behind by Hurricane Helene.
➤ Track all active storms
➤ Weather alerts via text : Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
Whether it becomes a named storm or not, the system will bring heavy rain to the Florida Peninsula starting around Sunday and extending into next week, said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.
Several areas across Florida are still recovering from a hit by Category 4 Hurricane Helene on Sept. 26. Hurricane Helene made landfall east of the mouth of the Aucilla River, 10 miles west-southwest of Perry, on Sept. 26 at 11:10 p.m.
With winds reaching 140 mph, the Category 4 storm ranks among the most powerful to strike the United States , according to NOAA.
Where is the potential tropical threat to Florida?
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure.
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and thereafter some gradual development is possible while the low moves slowly eastward or northeastward.
➤ Tropics watch Oct. 4: National Hurricane Center tracking 3 systems in tropics. Florida impacts
A tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form during the early to middle part of next week if the low remains separate from a frontal boundary that is forecast to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week.
Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula late this weekend into next week.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 40 percent.
Is there a hurricane coming to Florida?
The National Hurricane Center's latest advisory said a tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form during the early to middle part of next week.
"While the exact track and intensity of the feature unfolding in the gulf have yet to be determined, Florida will bear the brunt this time around," said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "At this time, the intensity will range from a sprawling tropical rainstorm to perhaps a strike from a more compact, full-blown hurricane."
"Two main pieces of energy will likely combine to spur development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in the coming days," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. "One piece is heading westward from the Caribbean, and the other piece is associated with a tropical depression near Mexico in the eastern Pacific."
"Should development take place in the southwestern gulf and move along a narrow east-northeast path toward the Florida Peninsula, there is the time and potential for the feature to strengthen into a tropical storm and hurricane," DaSilva said.
"While something is likely to form over the Gulf by the weekend, what develops is not likely to be a tight, well-organized hurricane, and may well not even technically be a tropical storm or depression either," Truchelut said Wednesday.
When could Florida feel impacts from system in Gulf of Mexico?
There are two different scenarios posed by AccuWeather:
- Scenario 1: The system remains disorganized, making a hurricane unlikely but heavy rain could be expected Monday night and Tuesday.
- Scenario 2: The system organizes, making a hurricane possible. Damaging winds, flooding and storm surge possible Tuesday and Wednesday.
A large area of rainfall is likely to spread out to the east and northeast of the low’s broad center, Truchelut said. This rainfall will probably reach the immediate northern Gulf Coast and the Florida peninsula by late in the weekend.
Impacts: Florida could see anywhere from 3 to 30 inches of rain
Even if the Gulf system doesn't get a name, Florida residents need to prepared for rain, a lot of it.
"A swath of torrential downpours will douse Florida, especially the central and southern parts of the peninsula, next week," AccuWeather said. "The rain is likely to fall over a several-day stretch unless a more condensed hurricane forms. In this case, the heaviest rain may be focused over one day but could be intense.
"The risk of flooding downpours will ramp up later this weekend and may persist into the middle of next week, depending on the intensity and forward speed of the feature. Many inches to a foot or more of rain may fall in some locations, with the biggest rainfall likely to be from Interstate 4 south to the Keys. The AccuWeather Local StormMax rainfall is 30 inches for this setup," AccuWeather said.
If the system does develop into a tropical storm or hurricane, storm surge and damaging winds also can be expected.
"The label, or lack thereof, doesn’t mean that there won’t be impacts: tropical or not, the eventual rainfall accumulations are likely to be heavy in Central and South Florida," Truchelut said.
South and Central Florida are likely to tally 3 inches or more of rainfall between Sunday and Tuesday, Truchelut said, with the potential for widespread higher totals if the storm lingers through the mid-week or beyond.
The Florida Public Radio Emergency Network predicted rainfall at:
- 1 and 3 inches from Thursday night to Saturday night across South Florida and 2 and 4 inches across the immediate Southwest coast of Florida.
- Up to 5 inches across South and Southwest Florida between Sunday and Tuesday night.
- 1-3 inches for Central Florida and the southern fringe of North Florida between Sunday and Tuesday, and another 3 to 5 inches between Tuesday and Thursday.
- "We forecast between 4 and 8 inches of rain, with some spots that could receive 12 inches during the next 7 days."
What's in store for St. Johns County expect?
More immediately, there's a high risk of dangerous rip currents at St. Johns County beaches as the powerful Hurricane Kirk spins in the Atlantic. The county has moderate chances of rain through the next seven days, with the highest chance coming Sunday, according to the National Weather Service in Jacksonville.
Friday : A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. East wind 7 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday night : Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph.
Saturday : A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 10 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Northeast wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday Night : A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7 p.m., then a chance of showers between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m., then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Northeast wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday : Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 82. East wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday Night : A 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73.
Monday : A 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82.
Monday Night : A 30% chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73.
Tuesday : A 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy.
Tuesday Night : A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday : A 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy.
Wednesday Night : A 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Breezy.
Thursday : A 30% chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Windy.
Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
What's next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here .
This article originally appeared on St. Augustine Record: System in Gulf could hit Florida with 3 to 30 inches of rain. Here's St. Johns County's forecast
Local News
