Rodri injury 'will cost Man City 11 points' in title battle with Arsenal

Manchester City are fearing the worst for Rodri amid reports the midfielder may miss the rest of the season with a serious knee injury .

Rodri was substituted during the first half of Sunday’s 2-2 draw with Arsenal after tussling with Thomas Partey, and was replaced by Mateo Kovacic.

City have not confirmed the severity of the injury or mapped out a timeline, but widespread reports point to the worst-case scenario.

The midfielder is considered by many as the best in the world in his position and has been hugely influential in City’s success in recent years.

Speaking after the game on Sunday, Pep Guardiola said: “He's the best holding midfielder in the world, he is a potential Ballon d'Or winner ... we have to handle [the injury].”

According to data, Rodri’s possible absence for the remainder of the season firmly hands Arsenal the initiative in the title race.

All three of City's league defeats last season, as they went on to claim an historic fourth consecutive title, came without Rodri in the team.

According to Opta data, since Rodri’s debut in the summer of 2019, City have lost just 11 per cent of their games with the midfielder in the team and 24% without him.

City are projected to win 80 points this season without Rodri, down from 91 with him

Across all competitions, City’s points-per-game (PPG) return is 2.36 with Rodri and 2.04 without.

City this season have already amassed 13 points, out of a possible 15. If you calculate their average PPG without Rodri for the remaining 33 games of the season, City are projected to finish on 80 points. With Rodri, that total climbs to 91.

A points total of 80 has not been enough to win the Premier League in 14 seasons.

Arsenal have been City’s sternest challenger over the past two seasons, winning 84 points in the 2022-23 season before racking up 89 points last season, both times as runners-up to Pep Guardiola & Co.

Another similar points return this season would easily surpass the 80-point prediction now afforded to City. It’s up to Guardiola to find a title-saving solution.