Progress report on the Potential Tropical Cyclone: Monday, Sep 16 update from the National Hurricane Center

Article first published: Monday, Sep. 16, 2024, 5 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Monday, Sep. 16, 2024, 8 a.m. ET

As per the National Hurricane Center's 8 am Monday update, the potential tropical cyclone is 85 miles south of Cape Fear North Carolina and 100 miles east of Charleston South Carolina, with maximum sustained wind of 50 mph. It’s moving 3 mph to the northwest.

"... the low will reach the coast of South Carolina this afternoon and then move inland across the Carolinas tonight through Wednesday." according to meteorologists. "Little change in strength is expected before the system reaches the coast, and the low still has a chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical storm." They also said "Weakening is forecast after the system moves inland, and it is likely to dissipate over the Carolinas by late Wednesday."

YESTERDAY (Sunday):

Yesterday (Sunday) at 5 pm, the National Hurricane Center published the first advisory for a potential tropical cyclone.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

- Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through late this afternoon or evening.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml? PeakSurge.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 10 inches, across portions of northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina today into tonight. Across the remainder of North Carolina, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 6 inches, are expected through Tuesday. Over much of Virginia, 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, are expected tonight through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to a risk of flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml? Rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml? Ero.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur through this evening across the eastern Carolinas.

SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Source: National Hurricane Center

This article was generated by the South Carolina Bot, artificial intelligence software that analyzes information from the National Hurricane Center and applies it to templates created by journalists in the newsroom. We are experimenting with this and other new ways of providing more useful content to our readers and subscribers. You can report errors or bugs to mcclatchybot@mcclatchy.com .