La Niña may weaker than previously thought, meaning potential storm relief for South Carolina as it recovers from Helene, latest forecasts show.
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s most recent forecast for La Niña predicts the weather pattern will develop sometime in October or November. La Niña typically leads to more severe Atlantic Hurricane seasons and drier winters for the Southeast.
However, the latest forecast now expects a weaker La Niña than was predicted earlier in the year, meaning South Carolina may be spared from an even larger influx of storms like Helene this year. It should be noted however that October through November is typically the most active time during hurricane season.
Helene moved past western South Carolina last week as a tropical storm, after first hitting Florida as a Category 4 hurricane. For South Carolina, the storm resulted in more than 30 deaths, massive power outages, severe flooding and countless downed trees. Many thousands of residents were still without power as of Thursday.
La Niña forecast
According to the latest forecast, there is a 71% chance of La Niña emerging between October and November. Once formed, it is expected to persist through at least January or even into March.
The Atlantic hurricane season started June 1 and lasts through November.
“The continuation of negative subsurface temperatures and enhanced low-level easterly wind anomalies supports the formation of weak La Niña,” the prediction center states. “A weaker La Niña implies that it would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts.”
What is La Niña?
La Niña is the opposite of El Niño. Trade winds are even stronger than usual during La Niña events, pushing warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the U.S., upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface. These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward.
Hurricane season 2024 so far
NOAA predicted an above-normal hurricane season with between 17 and 24 named storms (with winds of 39 mph or greater), of which eight to 13 could become hurricanes (with winds of 74 mph or greater). There could also be four to seven major hurricanes (with winds of 111 mph or greater).
So far, there have been 12 named storms for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season. After Helene, Hurricane Kirk formed and is currently a Category 3 storm. It’s not expected to impact the Southeast.
Leslie gained tropical storm strength Wednesday evening. While it is expected to become a hurricane in the coming days, it is also not predicted to impact the Southeast.
La Niña winter weather impacts
The effects from La Niña tend to trigger drought conditions in the Southeast, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration .
“The dryness over the Southeast is often associated with the Pacific-North American ( PNA ) climate pattern,” NOAA states. “In the pattern’s negative phase, the general flow of the atmosphere gets “stuck” in a wave train that repeatedly brings higher-than-normal pressure to the North Pacific, lower-than-normal pressure to western Canada, and, farther downstream, higher-than-normal pressure to the Southeast. High pressure generally results in dry skies.”
But again, if La Niña proves to be weaker this year, that could mean a reduced chance of a drier winter in South Carolina, the prediction center states.
Local News
