Five final thoughts and a score prediction ahead of South Carolina vs. Alabama game

South Carolina (3-2, 1-2 SEC) travels to Tuscaloosa for the first time in 15 years Saturday to take on No. 7 Alabama (4-1, 1-1 SEC) . Kickoff will be at noon ET and the game will air on ABC.

Those are some facts. Here are some thoughts.

1. Remember that South Carolina wasn’t supposed to win these games

South Carolina beating Kentucky and then narrowly losing to LSU unleashed the powerful fountain of hope across Columbia. Belief that maybe, just maybe, this was the year. A special team. The out-of-nowhere run into the Top 10.

The Lou Holtz era feels more decent than that.

South Carolina looked so bad in its loss to Ole Miss that it’s really easy to look at the remaining schedule and change perceived wins (at Oklahoma, vs Texas A&M, vs. Vanderbilt, etc) to losses.

But here’s the thing: These games are not good litmus tests.

South Carolina was not supposed to beat No. 12 Ole Miss. It is supposed to get clobbered by No. 7 Alabama.

So while it may feel like the sky is falling — and perhaps it is — these two weeks do not afford us accurate judgment. At least wait until the Oklahoma game. Wait until the next bye week to start writing the story of the season.

2. The gun thing

I was shocked last Saturday at what Dylan Stewart did. It wasn’t that he just grabbed an imaginary gun and tried to shoot Ole Miss QB Jaxon Dart , drawing a 15-yard penalty. Categorize that as a mistake. Fine.

But then he did it again … minutes later. Granted he was only ‘shooting’ at his teammates, but still. How does that happen? How can you draw a 15-yard flag and then think, I just need to tweak how I shoot the gun.

The response from South Carolina was interesting. Defensive coordinator Clayton White said he went into “dad mode” and told Stewart that wasn’t OK.

“He’s doing great. He’s practicing well,” White said during his Wednesday press conference. “He has a locker room full of guys and a community behind him. We’ll get through it.”

Get through what? Sure, there was some social media blowback, but Stewart’s actions deserved criticism . This was not sending fans sending threats to a kicker after a missed game-winner. This was people questioning how someone thought that was acceptable — twice!

In saying that, I liked how Shane Beamer handled it. He condemned Stewart’s actions, said how awful Stewart felt after the game, noted that Stewart was disciplined internally, while also indirectly reminding people that Stewart did not actually kill anyone. He didn’t get arrested. He didn’t actually hurt anyone.

He chose a stupid celebration. He’s not getting suspended or kicked off the team for a stupid celebration.

“I know all the social media angels,” Beamer said, “that have never done anything wrong want me to just tar and feather him out there in the middle of Five Points for his mistake. Doesn’t quite work that way.

“He’s a(n) 18-year-old young man,” Beamer added. “And he’s ours. And it’s our job to help him, just like a parent would do with a child when a child makes a mistake.”

3. South Carolina can’t even be the trap game

South Carolina can’t get any help. It can’t even be the surprise, the overlooked squad who pulls the upset. Kentucky and Vandy have beat the Gamecocks to the punch.

A week before South Carolina was set to play Ole Miss, the Rebels were upset by Kentucky. Then last week, seven days before the Gamecocks play then-No. 1 Alabama, the Crimson Tide lost to Vanderbilt for the first time in 40 years.

Folks would have bet on South Carolina going undefeated before they predicted Vandy beating Alabama. And it had to happen the week before the Gamecocks traveled to Tuscaloosa? That’s cruel.

The Crimson Tide now can’t take South Carolina lightly. They can’t be content with their scheme, their effort or their personnel. They will change things and challenge South Carolina in a new way.

Think that’s overblown? Last week, Ole Miss — just after losing to Kentucky — came out playing a defense South Carolina had never seen on film. The Rebels got beat and adjusted.

Asked this week if Vanderbilt made South Carolina’s task more difficult, White was honest.

“I would say yes,” he said. “Just being honest, yes.”

4. Offensive line has to improve

Over the first few weeks, Beamer was trying to steer blame away from his offensive line. All the sacks, he said, weren’t their fault. And he was right. The perimeter blocking was atrocious. And there were times QB LaNorris Sellers needed to get rid of the ball quicker.

But with every week, more and more blame is tacked on the O-line.

The Gamecocks lead the country in sacks allowed (22) and Pro Football Focus ranks South Carolina’s pass blocking No. 106 in the nation.

The problem is not just the sacks, but that the constant pressure disrupts everything. Why didn’t South Carolina take any deep shots last week? Well, part of it was that Sellers didn’t have enough time for his receivers to get downfield.

And, too often, Ole Miss was creating disruption with just three rushers. So Sellers would get flushed out of the pocket and eight Rebels defenders were on five South Carolina pass catchers. It was an impossible situation.

That can’t happen again this week.

5. Third downs don’t necessarily matter

Earlier this week, I wrote how penalties are a poor barometer of success. Last season’s national championship included one of the least-flagged teams in the country (Michigan) and one of the most (Washington).

You can win despite penalties.

The same, I think, is true of third downs.

The Gamecocks’ offense currently converts just 30% of their third-down attempts (121 in the nation). Among the dozen teams with worse conversion rates are BYU (5-0), Duke (5-1) and Oklahoma (4-1).

Winning is not predicated on converting third downs — so long as you score. A poor third-down offense can stay afloat via explosive plays, deep passes, chunk runs, on and on. Ole Miss put up 27 points on South Carolina (and it could have been much more) last week despite going just 3 of 13 on third down (23%).

In other words: I am far more interested how South Carolina’s offense changes on first and second down versus third down.

▪ PREDICTION: Alabama 34, South Carolina 17