Will South Carolina football make a bowl game in 2024? What ESPN thinks

Happy Week 0 to all who celebrate.

With South Carolina football less than two weeks away (the 2024 season kicks off Aug. 31 versus Old Dominion at Williams-Brice Stadium), the sport is in the throes of prediction season.

The Gamecocks clock in at No. 33 in preseason ESPN’s FPI rankings and No. 45 in The Athletic’s preseason 134-team college football ranking .

FPI stands for “Football Power Index (FPI).“ According to ESPN, FPI “is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.

“Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

As of Monday afternoon, ESPN predicts USC will finish 6-6, which would be a one-game improvement from 2023. South Carolina won at least six games in 61.2% of ESPN’s season simulations, meaning the Gamecocks would likely be bowl eligible for the first time since 2022.

South Carolina’s FPI ranks 12th in the divisionless 16-team SEC (ahead of USC’s Week 2 opponent Kentucky, Arkansas, Mississippi State and South Carolina’s Week 9 opponent Vanderbilt) and USC won the conference in just 0.4% of ESPN’s season simulations.

This season marks the first since South Carolina joined the SEC where it won’t play Georgia, Tennessee or Florida.

USC’s chances of making the College Football Playoff sit at just 4.4%, according to ESPN. Its chances of making the national championship game are 0.2% and its chances to winning the national championship are 0.1%.

Here’s a game-by-game breakdown of the Gamecocks’ upcoming season:

South Carolina football 2024 schedule: ESPN FPI by game

Aug 31: vs. Old Dominion

Kickoff time: 4:15 p.m. on SEC Network

Win probability: 87.3%

Spread: South Carolina -21

Sept. 7: at Kentucky

Kickoff time: 3:30 p.m. on ABC

Win probability: 44.3%

Sept. 14: vs. LSU

Kickoff time: noon on ABC

Win probability: 37%

Sept. 21: vs. Akron

Kickoff time: Night (6 p.m.-8 p.m.) on TBD

Win probability: 92.2%

Oct. 5: vs. Ole Miss

Kickoff time: Flex (3:30 p.m.-4:30 p.m. --OR-- 6 p.m.-8 p.m.) on TBD

Win probability: 43%

Oct. 12: at Alabama

Kickoff time: noon on TBD

Win probability: 13.8%

Oct. 19: at Oklahoma

Kickoff time: Early (noon-1 p.m.) on TBD

Win probability: 18.7%

Nov. 2: vs. Texas A&M

Kickoff time: Night (6 p.m.-8 p.m.) on TBD

Win probability: 43.1%

Nov. 9: at Vanderbilt

Kickoff time: Afternoon (3:30 p.m.-4:30 p.m.) on TBD

Win probability: 66%

Nov. 16: vs. Missouri

Kickoff time: Afternoon (3:30 p.m.-4:30 p.m.) on TBD

Win probability: 33.2%

Nov. 23: vs. Wofford

Kickoff time: 4 p.m. on SEC Network+/ESPN+

Win probability: 94.2%

Nov. 30: at Clemson

Kickoff time: TBD on TBD

Win probability: 29.6%