Stockton saw roughly 13% fewer homicides than did comparable cities during its violence reduction work with gang members in recent years, a 2024 study found.
From 2018 to 2022, there were 12.7% fewer killings in Stockton than in Anaheim, Bakersfield, East Palo Alto and eight other similar cities, according to study by University of Pennsylvania criminologist Anthony A. Braga and others.
“Our analyses suggest that Stockton Ceasefire prevented the city from experiencing an upturn in homicide that was as sharp as what occurred in other California cities following the COVID-19 pandemic and (George) Floyd protests,” the study stated.
The ceasefire model includes three goals:
- Reduce gang homicides and shootings
- Decrease recidivism and incarceration rates
- Strengthen police-community relations
Under the city's current violence-reduction approach, led by the Office of Violence Prevention, city officials and community leaders contact gang members they believe, based on shooting data, are most likely to be involved in imminent violence.
During that meeting, they spell out how law enforcement plans to respond to future violence by that gang member, and offer another choice in the form of housing, food and employment support, substance abuse treatment and more, the study stated.
"Our motto with our clients is, whatever it takes," Office of Violence Prevention Director Lora Larson told the city council at an annual update last year.
Stockton violence prevention: Attorney General Rob Bonta calls program ‘a model’ for California
Notably, previous versions of Stockton's violence-reduction strategy were correlated with relative drops in homicides even greater than the roughly 13% seen most recently, the study found.
The city saw about a 33% drop compared to similar cities during the earliest version of the program, from 1998-2002, researchers found. And there was a roughly 49% drop during the 2006-2008 version, they found.
The more modest success of Stockton's latest efforts could be due to a decrease in participants from 2019 to 2021, the study stated. California's COVID-19 lockdown started in March 2020.
"Nevertheless, given extremely difficult post-2020 governance challenges and multiple leadership changes, it is noteworthy that the city of Stockton maintained a ceasefire implementation that resulted in any public safety gains during this period," the study said.
City Manager Harry Black agreed with the study's findings.
“We have sustained and adapted during the COVID pandemic and the George Floyd crisis, and we have responded by providing more money and resources, and not letting up or giving into these distractions," Black stated in a press release. "The data tells the story and guides our actions, because this is what helps us to focus on people, their families, and the community."
Stockton's violence-reduction attempts also appear linked to greater safety for gang members who take part, researchers found.
Collectively, all versions of the program stretching back to 1998 were correlated with reduced odds that a participating gang member would be shot or arrested, the study found.
This article originally appeared on The Record: Stockton sees fewer homicides than similar cities under Ceasefire program: report
Local News
