What will fall weather be like for the Middle Tennessee area? Here's what Nashville can expect

While crisp fall breezes may be highly anticipated, Tennesseans will need to leave the sweaters in the closet for a little while longer.

Nashville and the Middle Tennessee region are in for a warmer-than-usual fall season. According to the latest data from the National Weather Service , Tennessee will experience above normal temperatures, yet equal chances of precipitation during September, October and November.

Temperatures in the 80s and 90s are also likely to persist longer than normal into September and possibly into October, said National Weather Service Lead Forecaster Sam Shamburger.

"As far as precipitation, people can expect roughly around the average values," added Shamburger.

What weather will the Middle Tennessee area experience during the fall season?

According to the Seasonal Temperature Outlook, the Volunteer State, as well as the rest of the Southeast, has a 40-50% chance of experiencing higher than normal temperatures.

During the month of September, Nashville typically sees high temperatures in the 80s and lows in the 60s with average rainfall of 3.80 inches.

"September is typically free of significant weather across Middle Tennessee, although a remnant tropical storm or hurricane that hits the Gulf Coast can sometimes make its way into our area and bring gusty winds and heavy rain," said Shamburger.

In October, temperatures cool down with average highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. October is typically Middle Tennessee's driest month of the year with an average precipitation total of 3.36", said Shamburger.

By November, the area experiences average highs in the 50s and 60s and average lows in the 30s and 40s. It is also the time of year when the region can see some unexpected and unpredictable weather. It has been as hot as 88 in 2016 in Nashville, and as cold as -1 in 1950. Furthermore, the transition period from November to December can sometimes act as a "secondary" severe weather season, added Shamburger. In December of 2023, the region experienced a deadly, late outbreak of tornadoes.

National Weather Service: Middle Tennessee drought expected to continue

According to the latest Drought Information Statement , the drought is contained to the southern portion of Middle Tennessee. Southern portions of Lawrence and Giles counties and parts of Perry, Hickman and Maury counties are experiencing a moderate drought, while other southern counties, as well as parts of East Tennessee are experiencing an abnormally dry drought.

Additionally, the drought is expected to continue into the fall season. However, the precipitation experienced in July has allowed for improvement and no areas areas are categorized as “severe” or “extreme”, said National Weather Service meteorologist, Ryan Husted.

When is the first day of fall?

The official first day of fall is Sunday, Sept. 22 , at 7:44 a.m. CT/ 8:44 a.m. ET, also known as the autumnal equinox. The equinox is known as the astronomical start of the season, but there is another method used to measure the change in seasons.

The meteorological start to fall is based on the annual temperature cycle and the 12-month calendar. With this definition, each season begins on the first of a particular month and lasts for three months. This means summer will end on Aug. 31 and fall will start on Sept. 1, according to The Old Farmer’s Almanac.

Joyce Orlando contributed to this report.

Diana Leyva covers trending news and service journalism for The Tennessean. Contact her at Dleyva@gannett.com or follow her on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, at @_leyvadiana

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: What will fall weather be like for the Middle Tennessee area? Here's what Nashville can expect