<body><div>At a Glance<ul><li>Another tropical storm appears increasingly possible near the Lesser Antilles in a few days. </li><li>After that, its future is quite uncertain later in the week. </li><li>Its possibilities range from curling north into the Atlantic sooner to developing later and moving farther west. </li><li>All interests in the Caribbean islands, the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast should monitor the forecast closely. </li></ul>Sign up for the Morning Brief email newsletter to get weekday updates from The Weather Channel and our meteorologists.The system currently brewing in the Atlantic, now known as Invest 98L, has a high chance of tropical development as it nears the Lesser Antilles early next week, according to the National Hurricane Center. Though the chances continue to increase that this will be the future Ernesto, the forecast regarding potential U.S. impact remains uncertain.W​here is it now? A broad area of showers and thunderstorms is located roughly halfway between the west African coast and the Lesser Antilles, moving toward the west-northwest. It's one of many so-called "tropical waves", disturbances that move westward through the tropical Atlantic each hurricane season and can be the "seeds" from which tropical storms and hurricanes develop. <figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=3PgsB5_0utDjV9J00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=3PgsB5_0utDjV9J00" width="1280" height="720" ><figcaption>Possible NHC Development (The possible area(s) of tropical development according to the latest National Hurricane Center outlook are shown by polygons, color-coded by the chance of development over the next seven days. An "X" indicates the location of a current disturbance. )</figcaption></figure>L​esser Antilles timing: We expect this tropical wave to arrive in the Lesser Antilles either late Monday or Tuesday. R​egardless, showers with locally heavy rain and gusty winds can be expected in the Windward and Leeward islands, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in this timeframe. <figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=1OaanO_0utDjV9J00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=1OaanO_0utDjV9J00" width="1280" height="720" ></figure>There is some potential for it to become either a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Ernesto either before or while it's near the Lesser Antilles, as it moves into a favorable environment of low wind shear and ample ocean warmth. <figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=1BhOWv_0utDjV9J00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=1BhOWv_0utDjV9J00" width="1280" height="720" ><figcaption>Current Wind Shear (Areas of strong wind shear, the difference in wind speed and direction with height, are shown in purple. High wind shear is hostile to mature tropical cyclones and those trying to develop. As in the previous map, the area of potential tropical development is also plotted. )</figcaption></figure>W​hat could happen next: After the Lesser Antilles, the forecast later in the week has a lot of question marks, in some ways similar to Debby's challenging forecast in late July. C​omputer forecast models suggest there will be a gap between two high pressure areas - the Bermuda-Azores high and a southern U.S. heat dome. In general, well-developed tropical storms and hurricanes usually move toward this gap between the ridges, curling north, then northeastward. Where that gap will be is critical. If the Bermuda-Azores high is more expansive and that gap is closer to the East Coast, "future Ernesto" could track closer to the East Coast when it curls north, then northeast. But what if the system doesn't develop as fast? In that case it could stay farther south and/or track over Hispaniola and Cuba and get far enough west where, even when it develops and then curls north, it may not be able to avoid at least parts of the U.S.T​o summarize, here are the possibilities for late week into the weekend of August 17-18:<ul><li>Develops fast and curls away from the U.S. East Coast</li><li>Develops later, then could threaten at least parts of the East Coast, including Florida</li><li>Develops even later, and could end up in the eastern Gulf of Mexico</li></ul><figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=305cGR_0utDjV9J00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=305cGR_0utDjV9J00" width="480" height="270" ></figure>T​he takeaway, for now: Given the system hasn't become a tropical depression yet, expect changes to this forecast, as we saw with Debby. A​ll interests from the Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Hispaniola, Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, the U.S. East Coast including Florida, Bermuda and Atlantic Canada should monitor this forecast in the coming days. </div></body>

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High Chance Ernesto Could Develop Near Lesser Antilles Early Next Week

Another tropical storm appears increasingly possible near the Lesser Antilles in a few days. After that, its future is quite uncertain later in the week. Its possibilities range from curling north into the Atlantic sooner to developing later and moving farther west. All interests in the Caribbean islands, the Bahamas...

High Chance Ernesto Could Develop Near Lesser Antilles Early Next Week

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