Is post-election violence inevitable, win or lose?

There's an argument to be made that the defining moment of Donald Trump's presidency, if not the past decade of politics at large, was Jan. 6, 2021, when a violent mob of MAGA protesters stormed the U.S. Capitol building to disrupt Congress' certification of Joe Biden as the winner of the 2020 election. The images from that day — lawmakers cowering behind security forces with their guns drawn, a mock gallows erected outside the Capitol rotunda, a braying "QAnon Shaman" stalking the Senate chambers — have become an indelible reminder that America is just as susceptible to political violence as anywhere else. It is perhaps even more so, given Trump's penchant for actively stoking the flames of resentment and frustration across his already fervent base.

Now, as the 2024 presidential election kicks into high gear with just three months to go before polls close in November, the specter of violence once again looms large over an electorate still grappling with the legal and political fallout of Jan. 6. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken this spring, more than two-thirds of respondents — Democrats and Republicans alike — said they were "concerned that extremists will resort to violence if they are unhappy with the election outcome." A more recent Deseret News/HarrisX poll saw three-fourths of the country "concerned about more political violence occurring before Election Day."

It's clear that fears of political violence, to say nothing of its actual likelihood, have a hold on the national psyche. Whether those fears will be realized one way or another remains to be seen.

What did the commentators say?

"Almost no one considered the U.S. a serious candidate for post-election violence until recently," political scientist Barbara Walter said at The New Yorker . But in the past decade, it's become "impossible to ignore that America has all the characteristics of a country at risk" including the "exact type of political system — presidential, winner-takes-all — that is most vulnerable."

"Many of the same sources of instability and grievances that precipitated" the Jan. 6, attack, "along with other challenges to the outcome of the last election, remain present today," agreed The Counsel on Foreign Relations . Even though the most acute threats are largely confined to the right wing, the "possibility of far-left extremist violence cannot be dismissed." The threat — an "urgent national security imperative" — isn't simply domestic, either. The prospect of violence could "undermine the United States' international standing and foreign policy goals, in a year where at least eighty elections will take place around the world."

If Donald Trump wins in November, there are "two components" of potential violence to watch out for, said right-wing extremism expert David Neiwert at The American Prospect . "One is the immigrant front" as has been previously seen in border states, where militia members are "rounding people up and serving them up to the Border Patrol" but on a national scale. The other is "Three Percenters, militias, the Proud Boys, who have all been gearing up" to attack protesters gathering to demonstrate against a Trump electoral victory. Conversely, if Kamala Harris wins, the risk of violence comes when bad actors "show up at ballot-counting centers, as well as at any other sort of body involved in counting and certifying the votes."

If this seems familiar, there's a reason for that. Many of the people involved in previous efforts to delegitimize American elections are the same ones agitating for — or at least anticipating — future violence and think that either "a lot" or a "great deal" of political violence will occur after the 2024 election. A study last month from Johns Hopkins University found more than 30% of conservatives who believe Joe Biden did not legally win the 2020 election "think that either 'a lot' or 'a great deal' of political violence will occur after the 2024 election." Perhaps more alarmingly, 65% of that group also "believe that the United States is 'very likely' or 'somewhat likely' to lapse into a civil war."

What next?

While a Republican victory in November is "likely to yield a more peaceful transition," the long-term effect means "we'll probably see more violence under a Trump presidency," said Walter at The New Yorker.

With the possibility of violence looming no matter the electoral outcome, "people should be getting ready; they should be talking to local and statewide law enforcement," said Neiwert. Stakeholders in the upcoming election, "including government, the private sector, and civil society," should begin exploring "countermeasures at the motive, means, and opportunity levels" to help diffuse the threat of, and perhaps even mitigate any outbreaks of, political violence, agreed CFR.