We got off to a slow start to the season, but our picks went 4-1 last week and we are now enjoying a profitable year on the betting front.
Let’s see if we can keep finding winners in the unpredictable world of college football.
Kansas (+3.5) at Arizona State
Hard as it may be to believe, several predictive models show incredible value on Kansas as an underdog.
Even though Arizona State is 3-1 and KU is 1-4, some experts still rank the Jayhawks ahead of the Sun Devils in their power rankings. That suggests KU would be favored on a neutral field and this game should be a pick ‘em.
But there is a reason Kansas is catching over a field goal.
It’s difficult to trust Lance Leipold’s team right now . The Jayhawks have led in the second half of all five of their games but enter this weekend on a four-game losing streak. Cam Skattebo is the player to watch for Arizona State, as he has rushed for 433 yards and five touchdowns on 86 carries. If the Jayhawks can contain him they will have a chance.
Alas, they have had a chance in all of their games this season and haven’t covered a single spread yet.
Missouri (+2.5) at Texas A&M
ESPN college football statistician Bill Connelly projects the Tigers to win this game 29-24 , so it’s possible the wrong team is also favored here. But this feels like it could be a true toss up.
Texas A&M has won four straight games, but the Aggies haven’t looked stellar during their winning streak. All of their victories, especially a 26-20 home win against Bowling Green, have been lackluster.
Missouri has also won four in a row, but its last two victories were close against Boston College and Vanderbilt.
Which of these teams is ready to put it all together and prove something with a strong performance? I’m not sure. But there is some familiarity here, as Texas A&M offensive coordinator Collin Klein went against Eli Drinkwitz in each of the past two seasons while he was at Kansas State.
My favorite bets
UCF (-3) at Florida: I understand why no one is in the mood to bet on the Gators right now, but this line is disrespectful. UCF has played two games against power-conference teams this season, and things have not gone well for the Knights in those matchups. They needed a miracle comeback to beat TCU by a single point and then got humiliated at home by Colorado. Florida is coming off a 45-28 win at Mississippi State and a bye week. The wrong team is favored in The Swamp. Pick: Florida.
West Virginia (+3.5) at Oklahoma State: Neither of these teams have looked particularly good, so it’s hard to predict which side will win this game. But we know the Cowboys and the Mountaineers love to run the ball. That could make for a lower-scoring game than you might expect. Pick: Under 65.5.
Houston (+16.5) at TCU: The Cougars haven’t scored a single point against a Big 12 team this season. They put up zero against Cincinnati and then zero against Iowa State. Zero! Maybe they will have more luck against TCU, but even then it’s hard to see Houston scoring more than once or twice. Pick: Houston team total under 17.5.
SMU (+7) at Louisville: People gave up on the Mustangs far too early. Yes, they looked bad against Nevada and BYU. But they turned things around during their bye week and then smashed both TCU and Florida State. This spread should be closer to a field goal than a touchdown. Pick: SMU.
Michigan (+2.5) at Washington: The Huskies should be pumped for their first home game in Big Ten play. Washington is only allowing 3.7 yards per rush this season. It might not be so easy for Michigan to run in this game. Pick: Washington.
Last Week: 4-1
Season: 14-11 (+1.9 units)
Upset pick of the week
West Virginia (+140) at Oklahoma State: Nothing will surprise me about this game. I can see West Virginia winning by 21. I can see Oklahoma State winning by 21. You want that kind of variance when you’re picking an underdog. The Mountaineers are also coming off a bye and the Cowboys haven’t looked right in their last two games. Pick: West Virginia.
Season: 2-3 (+0.7 units)
Other lines worth considering
Temple (+16.5) at Connecticut: UConn has been untouchable at home this season, beating Merrimack (63-17), Florida Atlantic (48-14) and Buffalo (47-3) by huge margins. Expect a similar result against Temple. Lean: UConn.
Clemson (-14.5) at Florida State: The Tigers have looked like one of the best teams in the nation since opening the year with a loss to Georgia. The Seminoles might not be good enough to compete with them. Lean: Clemson.
Texas Tech (+6) at Arizona: Texas Tech has won and covered in three straight games, but all of those games were played in Lubbock. It might be time to fade the Red Raiders as they hit the road. Lean: Arizona.
Indiana (-13.5) at Northwestern: Maybe I’m jumping on the bandwagon too late here, but the Hoosiers have won lots of money for their bettors this season. Lean: Indiana.
Tennessee (-13.5) at Arkansas: It’s easy to forget about the Volunteers in the SEC, but they have looked just as good as Alabama, Georgia and Texas early on this season. Lean: Tennessee.
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