Kamala Harris is riding another wave of support following her debate with Donald Trump

Political commentators and flash polls are close to unanimous in declaring Vice President Kamala Harris the victor in her first presidential debate against Donald Trump.

Those wondering if she could sustain the groundswell of support evident in the aftermath of President Joe Biden’s reluctant decision to withdraw from the race on July 21 saw impressive capacity as she tangled one-on-one with Trump.

Otto von Bismarck, the 19th century German chancellor, statesman and adherent of what’s known as Realpolitik , believed “you cannot make a wave, only ride it.” Harris found her wave in July — and the debate indicates she may continue to ride it with aplomb and appetite.

Read more: How 'brat summer' may be propelling Kamala Harris to the American presidency

Harris’s wave

Until June, few if any political analysts would have imagined Harris’s current role and star power. Then came skyrocketing doubts about octogenarian Biden’s capacities and the time pressure crisis confronting Democrats, who had either ignored or hidden the issues plaguing the president that came to light in the June 27 presidential debate .

Read more: Biden steps aside, setting in motion an unprecedented period in American politics

A highly unexpected opportunity — a wave — arose for a vice president in the right place at the right time. And as surfing parlance might put it, the wahini (female surfer) has been shredding enough to qualify as a kahuna (a wizard or magician) .

So far.

A dramatic wave is not a momentary phenomenon. A wave is one fractal of an ocean, and it’s the ocean, not the wave, that rolls on in its regularly volatile way. Can Harris successfully ride serial swells to victory in November?

Two background factors merit consideration.

Dangerous waters

First, the choppy waters Harris has to navigate until November are replete with dangers.

Predators inevitably circle in a presidential election campaign — and Trump and JD Vance are particularly shark-like opponents.

There are also perils within the Democratic Party itself, with undertows in motion caused by some hesitancy about the new leader, particularly among those agitating about the Gaza war .

Harris also confronts an entire country struggling through the deep waters of stress and division.

Economic currents remain unpredictable: job growth is real and inflation is calming, but these achievements are crosscut with justifiable angst about middle-class sustainability given increasing income and wealth inequalities.

Racism, xenophobia

The winds of racism and xenophobia are rising yet again in discussions about immigration, crime and drug trafficking ,

Anger has also been whipped up by abortion rights battles following the United States Supreme Court’s 2022 overturning of Roe v. Wade , in-vitro fertilization debates and a range of LGBTQ2S+ issues .

And beyond domestic turmoil, of course, Harris’s campaign will be vulnerable to storms raging or forming abroad. The wars in Gaza and Ukraine are already navigational challenges — with Iran and the South China Sea on an ever-evolving watchlist of international challenges.

Altered paths

Another factor relevant to assessments of Harris’s wave is the historical record: How have others aspiring to the White House dealt with moments that dramatically altered their opportunities?

The careers of other vice presidents were signficantly altered when their presidents died in office or were assassinated . These include presidents William Henry Harrison, Zachary Taylor, Warren Harding and Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR), Abraham Lincoln, James Garfield, William McKinley and John F. Kennedy.

Other crises or developments resulted in beneficial waves for several American leaders: for example, tensions over Texas and the Oregon territory enabled James K. Polk to go to war with Mexico in 1846 ; intense clashes over Vietnam and civil rights paved the way for Richard Nixon’s political resurrection in 1968 .

Two examples of politicians who benefited from substantial waves of public support might suggest the range of possibilities for Harris — and potential threats.

FDR

The Great Depression created FDR’s wave . The Democrat rode a surge of swells, in fact, with the prolonged crisis causing the undoing of Herbert Hoover and the Republican domination of the 1920s — and then the ongoing groundswell of support for New Deal reforms that built the modern American welfare state that encompassed social security and unemployment insurance as well as banking and stock market regulations.

FDR rode yet other waves after war in Europe and Asia resulted in him being elected to four terms ( prior to the two-term limit rule ratified in 1951 ) and provided opportunities for global presidential leadership.

Roosevelt had flaws — including his failure to prepare a fully like-minded cohort of successors — but he did enough in 12 years to join the company of George Washington and Lincoln as transformative American leaders.

George W. Bush

George W. Bush’s presidency began very differently from FDR’s. Where Roosevelt resoundingly defeated Hoover, Bush lost the popular vote and secured victory through a torturous and debatable legal process . To many he looked like a nepo-baby president with scant experience and a less than dynamic platform and persona.

Then came 9/11 and the virtual tsunami of support rising from a national trauma. Bush effectively rode that tsunami by tapping his inner Texan toughness, with bullhorn calls for revenge and frontier justice. Actions followed words, especially military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and dramatic initiatives to ramp up homeland security.

Unlike FDR, however, Bush did not sustain those waves of support that a crisis moment had produced. If the war in Afghanistan was reasonable against the backdrop of 9/11 — though debatable as a genuinely realistic strategy — the invasion of Iraq proved disastrous.

Bush narrowly won re-election in 2004, but the human and material costs of the war on terror mocked initial cakewalk predictions. Ineffective responses to Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the economic crisis of 2008 further clarified that riding unexpected waves of opportunity can end in wipeouts.

What’s ahead for Harris?

Will Harris’s wave-riding in the coming weeks resemble FDR’s or Bush’s?

Her debate performance suggests skills that still impress and a substantial command of the issues of the day

But another nod to von Bismarck is warranted. As he once observed :

“Politics is neither arithmetic nor mathematics. To be sure, one has to reckon with given and unknown factors, but there are no rules and formulas with which to sum up the results in advance.”

Ronald W. Pruessen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.