Tesla stock reacts to FSD roadmap ahead of robotaxi hype

Updated at 10:09 AM EDT

Tesla shares moved higher in early Thursday trading after the carmaker said it's ready to roll out its driver-assistance technologies early next year and preps for the launch of its Cybercab robotaxi next month in California.

As part of a road-map update for investors, posted on Chief Executive Elon Musk's X social media website, Tesla said its Full Self-Driving advanced driver-assistance software will be available in Europe and China next year, pending final regulatory approval.

The move comes as Tesla ( TSLA ) continues to shift focus away from its traditional electric-vehicle-production roots and toward next-generation products, such as robotaxis, that are powered by the group's artificial-intelligence technologies.

Musk himself touted the profit potential of AI technologies, particularly with respect to the group's ambition to offer self-driving software to its near 7 million global EV fleet. He added that capital spending would likely rise to around $10 billion this year as a result.

"We are going to double down on Dojo and we do see a path to being competitive with Nvidia with Dojo," Musk told investors in July. "We've really got to make Dojo work and we will."

Dojo is Tesla's self-designed supercomputer focused on computer vision processing and recognition.

"Anyone who doesn't believe that Tesla would solve vehicle autonomy should not hold Tesla stock," Musk said. "They should sell their Tesla stock."

Tesla's ability to prove this ambition will take a big step forward next month when it unveils its first robotaxi, dubbed the Cybercab, at an event that will reportedly be held at a Warner Bros. Discovery ( WBD ) studio in Los Angeles.

Robotaxi reveal in focus

Musk said the robotaxi event, originally slated for early August, was delayed to "make some important changes that I think would improve the vehicle." He added that he would be "shocked" if the first unsupervised rides couldn't take place by the end of next year.

"Next year seems highly probable to me based on" the pace of innovation in FSD developments, Musk told investors in July.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, a longtime bull, has said that Tesla is "the most undervalued AI play in the market" and that the group's autonomous and Full-Self-Driving platforms are "ultimately the key to reaching a $1 trillion+ valuation."

Related: Analyst revisits Tesla stock price target with eye on key value driver

Safety issues have continued to plague the FSD rollouts, however, with the technology linked to at least two fatal crashes over the past two years, including the death of a motorcyclist hit by a Model S sedan in Seattle earlier this summer.

Musk told Tesla employees earlier this year that it would be "mandatory" for its North American operations to "install and activate" Full Self-Driving software in new Tesla vehicles, and to "take customers on a short test ride before handing over the car."

"Almost no one actually realizes how well (supervised) FSD works," Musk wrote in the memo. "I know this will slow down the delivery process, but it is nonetheless a hard requirement."

FSD is key to Tesla's profit-margin growth

Tesla has claimed to have data based on around 300 million miles of driving, a figure Musk said would "soon be billions of miles and tens of billions of miles."

That would provide a huge competitive advantage for the company as it ramps up investments in AI and other technologies to harness its potential.

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The impact on profit margins could also be notable, given the $12,000 cost in addition to a Tesla's average selling price of $45,000. Musk has also said that Tesla is in discussions to license the technology to a "major" original-equipment manufacturer and is "very open to licensing our Full-Self-Driving software and hardware to other car companies."

Related: Top analyst defends Tesla stock price target despite earnings slump

Gene Munster, an analyst at Deepwater Asset Management and a longtime Tesla bull, has said the licensing of FSD technology could generate as much as $20 billion in annual revenue within five years of the first agreement.

Tesla shares were marked 5.9% higher in early trading to change hands at $232.44 each, a move that would extend the stock's three-month gain to around 33%.

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