Final Emmys 2024 Predictions: Yeah, ‘Shōgun’ and ‘The Bear’ Will Probably Win Everything

Emmy voters are going to do it again, aren’t they?

They’re going to give a whole lot of Emmys to a small group of shows on Sunday evening at the Peacock Theater in downtown Los Angeles, just as they did at January’s delayed ceremony when “The Bear” and “Succession” won in six of the seven comedy and drama categories, respectively, while “Beef” won in five of the six limited series categories.

That’s been typical in recent years: Rather than spreading the love, Television Academy voters heap kudos on the same shows over and over. In fact, they already did that at last weekend’s two Primetime Creative Arts Emmy ceremonies , giving a record-breaking 14 awards to “Shōgun,” which had gone into the ceremonies with 17 nominations. (The only “Shōgun” losses came in two music categories and in a cinematography category where it had two nominations and lost to itself.)

In the Creative Arts comedy categories, meanwhile, “The Bear” won seven awards, more than twice as many as the next-best comedy, “Only Murders in the Building.” Voters showed a little more eclecticism in the limited series categories, where “Ripley” won three, “Baby Reindeer” won two and “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans,” “American Horror Story: Delicate,” “Lessons in Chemistry” and “Masters of the Air” all won one.

Is it possible that the “it’s not really a comedy” backlash will hurt “The Bear?” Perhaps, but between last year’s showing and last weekend’s showing, it’s not likely. Is there a chance that the final season of “The Crown” will get a sentimental sendoff that’ll allow it to topple “Shōgun” in major drama categories? Dream on, Anglophiles, unless you’re talking about Elizabeth Debicki or Lesley Manville winning for supporting actress.

There’s more uncertainty in the limited series field, and there’s been one intriguing twist in the reality categories: Alan Cumming ended RuPaul’s eight-year winning streak in the reality host category at the Creative Arts Emmys.

Here are our best guesses for what will happen on Sunday night, with the caveat that Emmy voters, even when they’re obsessed with a small group of souls, almost always throw in a few surprises.

Comedy categories

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
Nominees:
“Abbott Elementary”
“The Bear”
“Curb Your Enthusiasm”
“Hacks”
“Only Murders in the Building”
“Palm Royale”
“Reservation Dogs”
“What We Do in the Shadows”

Yes, “The Bear” is very serious and sad and it bugs some people that it’s in the comedy category. But most of those people apparently aren’t Emmy voters, judging by the way the show’s first season cleaned up at the Emmys back in January and the way its second season cleaned up last weekend. As rich as it might be for “Curb Your Enthusiasm” to end its 0-for-10 streak in this category – by far the longest losing streak in category history – this looks to be in the bag for “The Bear.”

Predicted winner: “The Bear”

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees:
Matt Berry, “What We Do in the Shadows”
Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm”
Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building”
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”
Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”
D’Pharaoh Woon-a-Tai, “Reservation Dogs”

Remember when Jon Hamm went through seven seasons of “Mad Men” without ever winning an Emmy, and then finally won one in the show’s final season? And remember how Larry David has been nominated seven times for starring in “Curb Your Enthusiasm” without ever winning, and now he has one final chance to win in this category? Don’t expect history to repeat itself.

Predicted winner: Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees:
Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”
Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear”
Selena Gomez, “Only Murders in the Building”
Maya Rudolph, “Loot”
Jean Smart, “Hacks”
Kristen Wiig, “Palm Royale”

Quinta Brunson, Jean Smart and Kristen Wiig are all eminently reasonable choices, and Smart is two-for-two with wins for the first two seasons of “Hacks.” But Ayo Edebiri moved from the supporting category (where she won) into lead for the second season of “The Bear,” and she’s got that “Emmy voters love everything about ‘The Bear’” thing going for her. This one feels really close between Edebiri and Smart.

Predicted winner: Jean Smart, “Hacks”

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees:
Lionel Boyce, “The Bear”
Paul W. Downs, “Hacks”
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”
Paul Rudd, “Only Murders in the Building”
Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live”

Will Boyce and Moss-Bachrach split the “Bear” vote and open the door for Downs, Rudd or Yang? It’s a possibility, and Downs had some really great moments on “Hacks” this past season. But Moss-Bachrach is the category’s reigning champ and “The Bear” swept the guest acting categories at the Creative Arts show, and it’s hard to discount that.

Predicted winner: Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Nominees:
Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary”
Carol Burnett, “Palm Royale”
Liza Colon-Zayas, “The Bear”
Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”
Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”
Meryl Streep, “Only Murders in the Building”

Yes, “The Bear” could win this one, too. But there’s Meryl Freakin’ Streep, people! And Carol Double-Freakin’ Burnett playing a character in a coma! And Hannah Einbinder, the essential yin to Jean Smart’s yang (or vice versa), who might just knock off a couple of legends.

Predicted winner: Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees:
“Abbott Elementary”: “Party,” directed by Randall Einhorn
“The Bear”: “Fishes,” directed by Christopher Storer
“The Bear”: “Honeydew,” directed by Ramy Youssef
“The Gentlemen”: “Refined Aggression,” directed by Guy Ritchie
“Hacks”: “Bulletproof,” directed by Lucia Aniell o
“The Ms. Pat Show”: “I’m the Pappy,” directed by Mary Lou Bell i

Well, let’s see: The “Fishes” episode of “The Bear” is one of the most-nominated individual episodes in Emmy history, and it already won three Emmys on its own last weekend. Maybe, just maybe, there’s a “Bear” split and “Hacks” or “The Gentlemen” win, but don’t bet on it.

Predicted winner: “The Bear”: “Fishes”

OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees:
“Abbott Elementary”: “Career Day,” written by Quinta Brunson
“The Bear”: “Fishes,” written by Joanna Calo and Christopher Store r
“Hacks”: “Bulletproof,” written by Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs and Jen Statsky
“Girls5eva”: “Orlando,” written by Meredith Scardino and Sam Mean s
“The Other Two”: “Brooke Hosts a Night of Undeniable Good,” written by Chris Kelly and Sarah Schneider
“Pride Parade,” Jake Bender and Zach Dunn, “What We Do in the Shadows”

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the “Fishes” episode of “The Bear” is one of the most-nominated individual episodes in Emmy history, and it already won three Emmys on its own last weekend. And in this category there’s no other “Bear “nominee to split the vote.

Predicted winner: “The Bear”: “Fishes”

Drama categories

OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES
Nominees:
“The Crown”
“Fallout”
“The Gilded Age”
“The Morning Show”
“Mr. and Mrs. Smith”
“Shōgun”
“Slow Horses”
“3 Body Problem”

“Shōgun” made a late move from the limited series categories to the drama series ones, and in doing so took advantage of a year in which most of the recent heavyweights in this category had either ended their runs or suffered production delays that pushed them out of the eligibility window. Its dominance at the Creative Arts Emmys is a clear sign that there’s virtually nothing that can challenge it this year.

Predicted winner: “Shōgun”

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Nominees:
Idris Elba, “Hijack”
Donald Glover, “Mr. and Mrs. Smith”
Walton Goggins, “Fallout”
Gary Oldman, ”Slow Horses”
Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōgun”
Dominic West, “The Crown”

There are some great potential winners on this slate, not least among them Gary Oldman for his wonderful turn on the until-now-neglected “Slow Horses.” But just as voters loved to award the Korean lead actor Lee Jung-jae for “Squid Game” three years ago, they’re going to love awarding Japanese actor Hiroyuki Sanada this year.

Predicted winner: Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōgun”

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Nominees:
Jennifer Aniston, “The Morning Show”
Carrie Coon, “The Gilded Age”
Maya Erskine, “Mr. and Mrs. Smith”
Anna Sawai, “Shōgun”
Imelda Staunton, “The Crown”
Reese Witherspoon, “The Morning Show”

Imelda Staunton could become the third actress from “The Crown” to win an Emmy for playing Queen Elizabeth II. Maya Erskine could make a truly remarkable jump from “PEN15” to a drama Emmy in three years. Or, you know, “Shōgun” could win another.

Predicted winner: Anna Sawai, “Shōgun”

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Nominees:
Tadanobu Asano, “Shogun”
Mark Duplass, “The Morning Show”
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”
Jon Hamm, “The Morning Show”
Takehiro Hira, “Shogun”
Jack Lowden, “Slow Horses”
Jonathan Pryce, “The Crown”

Going into Emmy nominations, nobody thought that “The Morning Show” would end up with three of the seven supporting actor and four of the seven supporting actress slots. Past winner Billy Crudup could win again, but it won’t help him to have two castmates in the same category. Tadanobu Asano might well get the “Shōgun” vote over fellow nominee Takehiro Hira, or there could be an opening for Jonathan Pryce to steal one for “The Crown.”

Predicted winner: Tadanobu Asano, “Shogun”

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Nominees:
Christine Baranski, “The Gilded Age”
Elizabeth Debicki, “The Crown”
Nicole Beharie, “The Morning Show”
Greta Lee, “The Morning Show”
Lesley Manville, “The Crown”
Karen Pittman, “The Morning Show”
Holland Taylor, “The Morning Show”

Four from “Morning Show,” two from “Crown,” one from “Gilded Age” … and zero from “Shōgun.” The final season of “The Crown” was focused on Princess Diana, and the final acting Emmy for the show may be as well.

Predicted winner: Elizabeth Debicki, “The Crown”

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES

Nominees:
“The Morning Show”: “The Overview Effect,” directed by Mimi Leder
“The Crown”: “Sleep, Dearie Sleep,” directed by Stephen Daldry
“Mr. and Mrs. Smith”: “First Date,” directed by Hiro Murai
“Shо̄gun” “Chapter Nine: Crimson Sky,” directed by Frederick E.O. Toye
“Slow Horses”: “Strange Games,” directed by Saul Metzstein
“Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty”: “Beat L.A.,” directed by Salli Richardson-Whitfield

There are some heavyweight directors in this category: Mimi Leder, Stephen Daldry, Hiro Murai … But there’s only one show that’s been winning everything, and you know which one.

Predicted winner: “Shо̄gun”: “Chapter Nine: Crimson Sky,” directed by Frederick E.O. Toye

OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
Nominees:
“The Crown”: “Ritz,” written by Peter Morgan and Meriel Sheibani-Clare
“Fallout”: “The End,” written by Geneva Robertson-Dworet and Graham Wagner
“Mr. and Mrs. Smith”: “First Date” written by Francesca Sloane and Donald Glover
“Shо̄gun”: “Chapter One: Anjin” written by Rachel Kondo and Justin Marks
“Shо̄gun”: “Chapter Nine: Crimson Sky” written by Rachel Kondo and Caillin Puente
“Slow Horses”: “Negotiating With Tigers,” written by Will Smith

Is “Shо̄gun” vulnerable here? It might just be, particularly with two nominees vying against single episodes of “The Crown,” “Fallout,” “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” and what might be the true dark (and slow) horse, “Slow Horses.”

Predicted winner: “Shо̄gun”: “Chapter Nine: Crimson Sky” written by Rachel Kondo and Caillin Puente

Limited Series and Movie categories

OUTSTANDING LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES
Nominees:
“Baby Reindeer”
“Fargo”
“Lessons in Chemistry”
“Ripley”
“True Detective: Night Country”

Now things get interesting. “True Detective” got the most nominations, but “Ripley” and “Baby Reindeer” won the most Creative Arts awards, and the race seems to be between the scale and style of the former and the potent emotion of the latter. “Ripley” should win some, but “Reindeer” might have a slight edge here.

Predicted winner: “Baby Reindeer”

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Nominees:
Matt Bomer, “Fellow Travelers”
Richard Gadd, “Baby Reindeer”
Jon Hamm, “Fargo”
Tom Hollander, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”
Andrew Scott, “Ripley”

You can’t count out Jon Hamm as a bad sheriff or Tom Hollander as an uncanny Truman Capote, but this is another category that’ll probably come down to “Ripley” or “Reindeer.” And with voters having other ways to reward Richard Gadd, maybe Andrew Scott’s feels like more of a performance.

Predicted winner: Andrew Scott, “Ripley”

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Nominees:
Jodie Foster, “True Detective: Night Country”
Brie Larson, “Lessons in Chemistry”
Juno Temple, “Fargo”
Sofía Vergara, “Griselda”
Naomi Watts, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”

With no “Ripley” or “Baby Reindeer” nominee but lots of strong performances, this is one of the most competitive major categories. You can make a case for it going to any of the nominees, with maybe Jodie Foster edging out her fellow Oscar winner Brie Larson. But really, who knows?

Predicted winner: Jodie Foster, “True Detective: Night Country”

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Nominees:
Robert Downey Jr. , “The Sympathizer”
Lewis Pullman, “Lessons in Chemistry”
Jonathan Bailey, “Fellow Travelers”
John Hawkes, “True Detective: Night Country”
Treat Williams, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”
Tom Goodman-Hill, “Baby Reindeer”
Lamorne Morris, “Fargo”

Robert Downey Jr. could become the first person not named Helen to win an Oscar and an Emmy for acting in a single calendar year (Helens Mirren and Hunt are the others to do it), if he can overcome the inconvenient stat that a person who is his program’s sole nominee usually doesn’t win. If Downey doesn’t get into the Hall of Helens, Jonathan Bailey will most likely be the guy to keep him out.

Predicted winner: Jonathan Bailey, “Fellow Travelers”

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Nominees:
Jessica Gunning, “Baby Reindeer”
Kali Reis, “True Detective: Night Country”
Aja Naomi King, “Lessons in Chemistry’
Diane Lane, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”
Lily Gladstone, “Under the Bridge”
Dakota Fanning, “Ripley”
Nava Mau, “Baby Reindeer”

Would Emmy voters give this one to the actress who’s playing a character based on a real woman who’s suing the production for defaming here? Yeah, they probably would, because Jessica Gunning’s Martha in “Bad Reindeer” is one of the most vivid and memorable characters of the TV season.

Predicted winner: Jessica Gunning, “Baby Reindeer”

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Nominees:
“Baby Reindeer”: “Episode 4,” directed by Weronika Tofilska
“Lessons in Chemistry”: “Poirot,” directed by Millicent Shelto n
“Fargo”: “The Tragedy of the Commons,” directed by Noah Hawley
“Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”: “Pilot,” directed by Gus Van Sant
“Ripley,” directed by Steven Zaillian
“True Detective: Night Country,” directed by Issa López

You can’t discount the likes of Gus Van Sant, Noah Hawley or Issa López, and you really can’t discount “Baby Reindeer.” But the scale of “Ripley” probably gives Steven Zaillian the edge in a strange category where three of the directors are nominated for single episodes and two (Zaillian and López) are nominated for entire series.

Predicted winner : Steven Zaillian, “Ripley”

OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE

Nominees:
“Baby Reindeer,” series written by Richard Gadd
“Ripley,” series written by Steven Zaillian
“Black Mirror”: “Joan Is Awful,” written by Charlie Brooker
“Fellow Travelers”: “You’re Wonderful,” written by Ron Nyswaner
“True Detective: Night Country”: “Part 6,” written by Issa López
“Fargo”: “The Tragedy of the Commons,” written by Noah Hawley

In another category that pits entire series against individual episodes, Richard Gadd will probably get extra points for the way he mined the trauma in his own life for one of the season’s biggest sensations.

Predicted winner: “Baby Reindeer,” Richard Gadd

Reality, Variety and Talk categories

OUTSTANDING REALITY COMPETITION PROGRAM
Nominees:
“The Amazing Race”
“RuPaul’s Drag Race”
“Top Chef”
“The Traitors”
“The Voice”

This is a category where voters are slow to change favorites, so it’s probably smart to stick with the reigning champ unless there’s good reason to change. But is the fact that RuPaul lost the reality host Emmy to “The Traitors” host Alan Cumming after winning for eight years in a row a good enough reason to think that the run of five wins in six years for “RuPaul’s Drag Race” may be in jeopardy? It might be – but it’s worth noting that RuPaul himself won the hosting Emmy for two years before his show received its first award in this category, so we’re going to guess that “The Traitors”’ time hasn’t quite come yet, Cumming’s win notwithstanding.

Predicted winner: “RuPaul’s Drag Race”

OUTSTANDING SCRIPTED VARIETY SERIES
Nominees:
“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver”
“Saturday Night Live”

With only two nominees, this is a silly category. “SNL” may be the winningest show in Emmy history, and the first program ever to top 100 victories, but John Oliver beat it head-to-head in a writing category last week. Maybe “SNL” will win next year for its 50th (!) season.

Predicted winner: “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”

OUTSTANDING TALK SERIES
Nominees:
“The Daily Show”
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!”
“Late Night With Seth Meyers”
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”

Jon Stewart used to own this category back when he hosted “The Daily Show” – but after he left, the show didn’t win again until the 2023 Emmys, when Trevor Noah’s final season took the award. You wouldn’t think that a season of rotating guest hosts could win, except that Stewart is back as one of those guest hosts, and that could make all the difference.

Predicted winner: “The Daily Show”

OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL
Nominees:
“Alex Edelman: Just for Us”
“Jacqueline Novak: Get on Your Knees”
“John Early: Now More Than Ever”
“Mike Birbiglia: The Old Man and the Pool”
“The Oscars”

The nominees are four standup specials plus the Oscars. It’s worth noting that the Oscars received seven nominations this year, its most in four years, and has already won four, its most in 15 years. Alex Edelman is probably the comic with the best shot of winning – but in the absence of a clearly dominant comedy show, the Academy Awards have a real shot at their first win in this category since Billy Crystal, Bruce Vilanch and company did it in 1992.

Predicted winner: “The Oscars”

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