Warm Temperatures and Mixed Precipitation Patterns Expected Across the U.S. 8/21

Photo byClimate Prediction Center

Above-Normal Temperatures Favored in Central and Western U.S., Varied Precipitation Patterns Likely

COLLEGE PARK, MD — Issued by the National Weather Service at 3:00 PM EDT on Friday, August 16, 2024.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has released its 6-10 day outlook, predicting above-normal temperatures for much of the Western and Central U.S., while coastal areas may experience cooler weather. The 8-14 day outlook suggests continued warmth in the west and central regions, with precipitation forecasts varying greatly across the country.

Warm Conditions to Dominate Western and Central U.S.

According to the CPC, warm temperatures are expected to persist across the Great Plains, Rocky Mountains, and Southwest U.S. from August 22 to 30, 2024. A weakening Omega pattern will reduce the intensity of cooler air on both coasts, leading to more widespread warmth. The Great Plains and Southern Rockies are particularly favored for sustained above-normal temperatures, with probabilities exceeding 70%.

Temperature Outlook by Region:

• Above-Normal Temperatures: Central Plains, Rocky Mountains, Western U.S., Northern Plains, Southern Plains
• Near-Normal or Below-Normal: Coastal regions of the Northeast and Pacific Northwest

Precipitation Outlook Mixed

Photo byClimate Prediction Center

In terms of precipitation, the Northwest U.S. is expected to see above-normal precipitation, driven by troughing over both coasts. Monsoon activity will also increase the likelihood of above-normal precipitation in parts of the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. However, below-normal precipitation is favored across much of the Central U.S., particularly the Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley.

Precipitation Outlook by Region:

• Above-Normal Precipitation: Pacific Northwest, Desert Southwest, Northern Rockies
• Below-Normal Precipitation: Central Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, Southern Great Lakes
• Near-Normal Precipitation: Southeast U.S., portions of the Alaskan coastline

Confidence Levels and Forecast Summary

• Confidence Level: High (4 out of 5) for the 6-10 day period, as forecast models show strong run-to-run continuity.
• Forecast Trends: Warmth and dryness in the Central U.S., wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Southwest U.S.

Precautionary Measures

The CPC advises residents in the Central Plains and Southern Rockies to prepare for sustained heat. In the Northwest, individuals should be cautious of potential heavy rains leading to localized flooding, especially in mountainous regions.

Spotter Activation

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. However, weather spotters are encouraged to monitor for any significant developments in their areas.

Seek Out Updates

Weather Watches, Warnings & Advisories are frequently updated. Please look for updates to this report from the National Weather Service, or your local news channels and NOAA All Hazards. Please follow Thumbwind Publications for more local weather and news updates.