Tropical Activity Brewing: Low Chances of Development, Heavy Rains Expected Along Gulf Coast

Photo byNational Hurricane Center

Forecasters Monitor Multiple Systems in Atlantic and Caribbean

MIAMI — Issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2:00 AM EDT on September 1, 2024.

Low Pressure Near Texas Coast Brings Threat of Heavy Rain

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a broad area of low pressure near the upper Texas coast. This system is producing limited shower activity along the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Forecasters expect the system to linger near the coast throughout much of the week, with a slight chance of development if it drifts offshore. While the chance of tropical formation remains low—just 10 percent over the next 48 hours and 20 percent over the next seven days—the primary concern is heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding in coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast.

Tropical Wave Near the Lesser Antilles Shows Signs of Organization

Another area of interest is a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This disturbance is showing some signs of organization as it moves westward. It is expected to reach the Lesser Antilles by Monday. Conditions are anticipated to become more conducive for development later this week as the wave progresses across the central and western Caribbean Sea, potentially leading to the formation of a tropical depression. The NHC has assigned this system a 10 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours and a 40 percent chance within the next seven days.

Tropical Wave Over Africa Could Develop in the Atlantic

A third system of interest is a tropical wave currently over western Africa that is forecast to move offshore on Monday. Environmental conditions may support slow development as it moves westward or west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean throughout the week. This wave currently has a near 0 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours and a 20 percent chance over the next seven days.

Prepare for Possible Flooding and Stay Informed

Residents along the Gulf Coast and in the Caribbean should remain vigilant and prepared for heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding. Continue to monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center, and follow Thumbwind Publications for local weather and news updates.