Coast, Columbia River at risk of flooding from climate change, sea level rise, scientists find

High water on U.S. 101 in Tillamook in December, 2023. Tillamook is among dozens of sites along the Oregon Coast where rising sea levels will cause repeat flooding by the end of the century, according to scientists. (Oregon Department of Transportation/Flickr)

Hospitals, schools and other critical infrastructure and services along the Oregon Coast and in parts of the Columbia River Gorge are at risk of repeat flooding if nothing is done to rapidly curb greenhouse gas emissions causing climate change, scientists find.

An analysis of flood risks around the U.S. under various climate change scenarios was published June 25 by the Massachusetts-based Union of Concerned Scientists, a national nonprofit that includes about 250 scientists, analysts and policy experts. The researchers looked at the possibility that essential facilities – including medical facilities, government buildings, fire stations and public housing – would be flooded at least twice a year.

In Oregon alone, up to 142 critical infrastructure sites could be impacted along the coast by the end of the century, primarily in the state’s northwest corner. More than 130,000 people live in the three counties – Clatsop, Coos and Tillamook – that would be most impacted, the analysis said.

The scientists analyzed the flood risk of critical coastal infrastructure through the end of the century under three scenarios. The first considered a lowering of greenhouse gas emissions, creating relatively low sea level rise by 2100 of about 1.6 feet. The second scenario projected a medium sea level rise to 3.2 feet by the end of the century. The third – a worse-case scenario – envisioned a rise in greenhouse gas emissions during the second half of the century causing a 6.5 foot increase in sea levels by 2100.

Across the U.S., more than 15,000 critical infrastructure sites could be impacted if sea levels rise more than 6 feet by 2100, the study said. The researchers found that twice as many critical infrastructure sites were in areas with predominantly Black, Hispanic or Latino and Native American populations.

In Warrenton, a key wastewater treatment plant could face flooding once every two weeks by 2100 in the low sea level rise scenario. The Knappa Fire District Station in Astoria and the Cannon Beach Post Office on North Hemlock Street could be flooded as often as every two weeks in the highest risk scenario. The same would apply to two apartment buildings offering affordable housing in Seaside.

“In truth, our collective willingness to stop polluting now will determine the scale of the problem late this century,” the scientists wrote.

The EN-ROADS simulator developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology also shows flooding from rising sea levels and climate change moving deeper into the Columbia River Gorge by 2100 if climate change continues to worsen and oceans rise. According to the simulator, the single most effective policy decision to slow climate change would be to tax carbon dioxide emissions by the ton and charge heavily polluting industries, such as those in the oil and gas sector, forcing them to decarbonize.

In the report, the Union of Concerned Scientists recommended that policymakers, planners and technical experts collaborate and invest to safeguard critical infrastructure in high-risk areas and to start working now on moving people and services as needed to areas with more protection. More broadly, they called for a rapid phasing out of fossil fuels, holding heavy greenhouse gas emitters accountable for their pollution and costs and ramping up clean energy investments.

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