Wednesday night's flood was not the same as 2023's flood

"No two storms are the same." That weather adage rings true, even the two storms strike the exact same dates one year apart over the same general area. The July 2024 floods and the July 2023 floods did not have the same setup.

In the immediate aftermath of last July's flood, we wrote that whether or not that flood was worse, the same or not as bad as Irene in 2011 would come down to individual experiences. While Wednesday night's floods weren't as widespread and likely weren't as costly as July 2023, to those hit the hardest, this storm can't be discounted.

Some of the hardest hit communities Wednesday night were the towns of Plainfield and Lyndon. The Passumpsic River runs through both Lyndon and Lyndonville. This river was one of several that rose to major flood stage. The river spilled onto Route 5, which is the main artery through the communities. The town of Lyndon saw evacuations by boat begin before sunrise on Thursday morning. By the afternoon, a large section of the town was underwater, with cars at a local auto shop showing the depth of the floods.

The Passumpsic River was among the last rivers in Vermont to begin to recede. Some long time residents and business owners felt this was some of the worst flooding they’ve seen in the town. The owners of that auto shop said their business has flooded three times in the 20 years they’ve been there, but this was the worst. One of Vermont’s two likely fatalities from the floods came in Lyndonville when a motorist drove onto a closed street and was swept away by the flood waters.

Another of the hardest hit towns was Plainfield. Like Lyndon, Plainfield’s main artery, US Route 2, was shut down by intense flooding. This route borders the Winooski River, another of the rivers that reached major flood stage. Plainfield was the site of some of the worst structural damage seen during this flood. An apartment complex partially collapsed. All residents of the building were successfully evacuated. Four homes as well as several cars and bridges were washed away within the town as well.

Partial building collapse in PlainfieldPhoto byWPTZ

Plainfield was also hit hard in July 2023, but some residents say this July’s floods were worse. One resident said directly “This is worse than last year. I mean, our little town has gotten hit substantially hard.” Many residents were still working on repairs from last year when this flood struck.

Once the water began to recede, it left behind a thick layer of mud and sediment. Mud to the tops of mailboxes and blocking front doors were seen throughout the town. Water has been restored to the town, but a boil water advisory is in effect. Several gas leaks also occurred throughout the town.

A thick layer of mud and sediment up to the tops of mailboxes in PlainfieldPhoto byRachel Keast

Some areas of Vermont saw very (and sadly) familiar sites on Thursday morning. Barre saw similar effects from the 2024 floods as they did in 2023. The city was one of the hardest hit last year and was among the first to experience widespread flooding this time around on Wednesday evening.

A washed out road in the city is what prompted the National Weather Service to issue its first “considerable” damage threat in a flash flood warning Wednesday night. The same streets inundated in the city last year once again became fast flowing rivers.

Once the flooding subsided, the city was caked in mud once again, with residents forced to dig out. Throughout Thursday, the hum of heavy machinery hauling away tons of mud was among the most prominent sounds through the city. “It’s terrible, like deja vu from last year basically” said one resident.

Flooding in BarrePhoto byWCAX

Another town hit hard by both 2023 and 2024 was Moretown, on the Mad River. The Mad River crested right on the border between moderate and major flood stage. When the Mad River rose Wednesday night, it cutoff large portions of the town from the outside world. The town’s many unpaved roads didn’t stand much of a chance against the raging waters.

Hundreds of residents were stranded in their homes. In the middle of the night, a siren rang out, signaling residents to evacuate. The town was the site of some of the 100+ swift water rescues that occurred throughout Vermont. As of Friday evening, some residents of the small town remain stranded within their homes. More town was the site of one of four landslides to have occurred.

Moretown wasn’t a town known for perpetual flooding like some other communities in Vermont, but in the last year, this was the third major flood. After being hit hard by the July 2023 floods, Moretown was one of the few towns in Vermont that required evacuations during the December cyclone when the Mad River struck major flood stage again.

Damaged bridge in MoretownPhoto byKyle Ambusk/Vermont Public

Other communities slammed by the July 2023 floods were spared the worst of this week’s flood. Towns like Ludlow and Bridgewater, which were the scenes of the first ever flash flood emergency issued in Vermont in 2023, were too far south to see substantial rainfall from this week’s storm. While Ludlow could be seen as the epicenter of last year’s floods, a very sharp cutoff in rainfall kept the town from repeating last year’s devastation like some other communities in the state.

Montpelier was also very hard hit by both flash flooding and river flooding in 2023. Vermont’s capital city was not completely flood free this week, but comparatively speaking, the city was rather unscathed, especially downtown, which was heavily inundated last year.

This came as nearby communities such as Barre and Plainfield were hit hard this time around. Montpelier is a prime example of why no two storms are the same, even when forecasts (and dates) are similar. Much of the flooding that did occur within the city occurred on the outskirts, closer to the other hard hit towns and cities.

Winooski River in Montpelier. The river rose to action stage, but did not reach flood stage in the city.Photo byGlenn Weyant

The overall setups between the 2023 floods and 2024 floods had one major similarity: an extremely moist atmosphere able to produce extreme rainfall rates. In 2023, a few relatively mundane ingredients happened to line up perfectly in just the right environment to produce the excessive rainfall. In 2024, a tropical element was introduced with the remnants of Hurricane Beryl, injecting even more moisture into an already moisture-rich environment.

One of the few big differences with 2023 and 2024 was where the forcing for the rain took place. In 2023, it was along a stalled cold front with an area of low pressure forming along it in southern New England. In 2024, Hurricane Beryl's remnants were forced to move to New England's northwest due to blocking in the Atlantic Ocean. This lifted a warm front through New England. This warm front slowed down across New England's northern tier due to a cold front approaching from Canada.

Photo byNew England Storm Center

Photo byNew England Storm Center

2023 was a long duration event that was drawn over a good 36 hours. This week's flood was the true definition of a flash flood. In Barre, the flood waters were said to have risen within an hour and a half. A local resident stated "One minute we looked out the door and it, the road, was wet. Not 15 minutes later, it was on the lawn." Rivers rose extremely rapidly in response to the flooding.