Rounds of showers incoming between very nice weather for New England

Troughing remains anchored to New England's east over the next two days. This keeps weak disturbances rippling through the region. On Wednesday, an area of low pressure (along with a weak cold front) will continue to move westward out of the Canadian Maritimes and into eastern Maine.

Photo byNew England Storm Center

This will initiate scattered showers and storms this afternoon, mostly across Maine and northern New Hampshire. Some of these showers will likely drop south into southern New Hampshire and southern New England heading toward the evening. These will mostly be plain showers, but some thunderstorms are possible. Conditions are unfavorable for organized storm development.

GFS showing potential weather around mid-afternoon today:

Photo byGFS/Tropical Tidbits

The cold air aloft associated with the trough to New England's east continues to retrograde west heading into Thursday. This will allow for another day of afternoon and evening showers and storms. With a deeper layer of cold air farther to the west in New England, these showers will be more widespread across all of New England.

Like Wednesday, organization of the showers will be difficult as there is no strong factor for them to organize along over New England (like frontal boundary). Instead, they will pop up first across the northern tier of New England around midday before dropping southward as the afternoon goes on. As they drop south, the showers and storms will likely become more numerous, peaking in the mid to late afternoon hours.

GFS showing potential weather heading toward late afternoon Thursday:

Photo byGFS/Tropical Tidbits

While a majority of Thursday's activity should be plain showers, some thunderstorms will be possible. It will be difficult for storms to develop and strengthen, but any one that does could produce brief instances of small hail with all the cold air aloft.

Friday will be the driest day for New England as a whole through at least early next week. High pressure quickly moves in as the area of low pressure from Wednesday and Thursday moves south and east. It will still be nearby, so some isolated afternoon showers are possible across eastern Maine.

Heading into the weekend, a more organized frontal system will approach the region from the Great Lakes. This system looks to be slow moving as a ridge plants itself across eastern Canada, preventing much eastward progress of the system. This will allow unsettled weather to persist through the weekend. With the system remaining to the west, it will be western New England who will generally see more numerous shower chances than eastern areas on Saturday.

Photo byNew England Storm Center

This frontal system will have a major impact on the track of Tropical Storm (soon to be Hurricane) Ernesto. Later this week, Ernesto will make a familiar bend to the northeast, as many hurricanes do in its current position. As we head toward this weekend, the storm takes a slight westward jog, closer to the eastern seaboard. This is due to the frontal system moving slowly over the eastern US. When frontal systems move across the United States, they can initially tug on a tropical system and pull them closer.

Photo byNational Hurricane Center

As the system over the northeast continues to jog east, it's likely to push the storm away once again. Guidance is in very good agreement of Ernesto passing well offshore late this weekend or early next week. It still needs to be watched in regards to exactly how the storm will interact with the system over New England, but the main impact looks to be confined to large swells and rip currents.

Photo bytropicaltidbits.com