New England weather this week: Gradually changing pace

While this week will start off with more of the same for New England, a gradual breakdown of the pattern we've been in will commence around midweek. A distinct cooling trend will also occur as the week pushes on.

MONDAY & TUESDAY

Monday and Tuesday will feature the same weather New England has seen for the better part of two weeks now. That is to say it will be warm with plenty of sunshine. The sunshine may be more filtered in places, especially on Tuesday, as high clouds and some wildfire smoke enter the picture. Widespread high temperatures in the 80s will continue. This all comes as the Rex Block over the east coast continues with a developing tropical system off the coast of the Carolinas.

Weather map for Tuesday morning, showing the high-over-low Rex Block holding its position with high pressure over New England and low pressure over the south:

Photo byWeather Prediction Center

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY

The breakdown of this blocking pattern will be slow, as is usually the case with blocking patterns. In this case, the once strong area of high pressure over New England will continue to slowly break down while the remnants of a tropical system slowly push northward. The position of what's left of the high pressure as well as the timing of a cold front dropping south into northern New England will ultimately determine just how far north showers reach during this period. It will be a close call with New England barely on the northern extent.

Wednesday has been trending drier as it continues to look like the initial round of showers won't arrive until late in the day at the earliest for southern New England. It will likely be a mainly cloudy day for southern and central New England. There will generally be more sunshine the farther north you go in the region. Wednesday night into Thursday will likely see increasingly unsettled weather as showers push into southern and central New England.

Photo byNew England Storm Center

While the timing of rainfall does have a level of uncertainty as models can have some trouble with the breakdown of blocking patterns, it currently looks like the most widespread showers will come on Thursday morning. Unsettled weather will likely continue through Thursday and possibly into Friday morning. Just how frequent and widespread showers are remains to be seen. If the system remains mostly shunted south, New England could still end up just seeing a couple sprinkles.

Generally speaking, total rainfall amounts will be higher the farther south in New England you go. With the uncertainty in just how far north the showers will push, there is also uncertainty in total rainfall. As of now, a half inch to an inch of rain is possible across Connecticut and Rhode Island with the potential for over an inch across Cape Cod and the Islands. Amounts will steadily drop off moving northward. There is not much of a threat for torrential downpours, just beneficial rain.

Current Weather Prediction Center rainfall forecast through Friday:

Photo byWeather Prediction Center

The other item to note for later this week will be the falling temperatures. Starting midweek, a northeast flow off the ocean will begin to bring in cooler temperatures. Heading into the late week, a backdoor cold front will move through bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler air. This front will be moving through drier air over New England, so it does look like it will be a drier passage, with just some showers across the northern tier on Friday.

Photo byNew England Storm Center

WEEKEND

As of now, the more unsettled weather looks to clear out by the weekend with a drier and cooler air mass setting up post-frontal passage. With the front being of the backdoor variety, it will be Vermont that will likely be the warmest at the end of this week rather than the coolest (relative to local averages). At this point, it looks like high pressure may gradually build back into the region.

Weather map for Sunday morning:

Photo byWeather Prediction Center