Another prolonged stretch of dry weather arrives for New England

An upper-level low that parked itself just to the north of Maine will gradually move away from New England throughout the day today. Scattered upslope rain and snow showers in the mountains will wind down today. While this system lifts away, a strong, expansive area of high pressure will build into the region from the west. This high pressure will dominate the weather through midweek next week.

For the rest of this week and into next week, there will be a distinct warming trend as it relates to high temperatures. The center of this high will be to New England's southwest, a favorable position to pump more mild air into the region. After another chilly Wednesday, each day will likely get a notch warmer than the last through the weekend. Afternoon temperatures will peak with widespread mid 60s to low 70s this weekend into early next week. Typical warm spots of southern New England may be able to push well into the 70s.

Photo byNew England Storm Center

It will take longer for morning lows to climb. High pressure overhead means conditions will be excellent for radiational cooling with clear skies and light winds. Winds will still be breezy during the day today, but will slacken heading into tonight. Low temperatures for Thursday morning will be the coldest of the season thus far for many areas. Lows will likely bottom out in the upper 20s to mid 30s. This will result in a widespread frost with chances for the first freeze of the season in many areas.

Photo byNew England Storm Center

Morning lows will stay chilly right through the weekend with widespread 30s to low 40s continuing. These lows will warm up by early next week (along with warming high temperatures) with widespread 40s, bringing an end to these bouts of frosty (and freezing) mid-October weather.

Along with the warming temperatures, this expansive area of high pressure will bring about very calm and mainly sunny weather through the weekend and into early next week. This high pressure will be rather strong, building to the 1,030-1,035mb range. For comparison, average neutral (neither high nor low) surface pressure is around 1,013mb. This will deflect any storm systems away from New England.

Below: Weather map for Saturday (October 19), showing the strong high pressure system (at 1,036mb) centered over New York/Pennsylvania:

Photo byWeather Prediction Center

There will be two systems in the vicinity of New England during this time frame, however. First, a distant coastal storm will meander well offshore of the east coast late this week. This system looks to make its closest pass to Cape Cod on Friday morning. Depending on how close it gets, spotty showers will be possible on Cape Cod and the Islands on Friday. The high pressure should keep this system well offshore with shower chances pushing no further north and west than Cape Cod.

Below: GFS showing potential weather for Friday morning. This model brings the system the closest to Cape Cod among the major global models:

Photo byGFS/Tropical Tidbits

The second system will be a cold front that may approach northernmost New England later in the weekend and early next week. This front will have a very hard time pushing into New England amid the high pressure and may only manage to produce an uptick in clouds for northern New England along with a breeze. With these two systems being deflected from New England, any precipitation will be difficult to come by, as seen in the current Weather Prediction Center 7-day rainfall forecast, which is shown below.

Photo byWeather Prediction Center

The next real chance for some precipitation may come toward the middle or end of next week. At this time, the ridge of high pressure may slide eastward, making way for a potential trough to dig into the region. This would not only bring an increased shower chance, but an end to the budding 70° highs. Being more than a week out from this potential situation, only time will tell how this plays out.