Although it's a high rise, Titusville Towers is among several critical infrastructure sites in Brevard County that rose to the surface as at risk of "disruptive flooding," according to an analysis released Tuesday by the nonprofit Union of Concerned Scientists.
Retirees in the 120-unit waterfront assisted living facility should be plenty high and dry in 2050, but by then their surrounding grounds could flood as much as every two weeks, even under just a "medium" sea-level-rise scenario, according to UCS's report.
Their study shows that between now and 2050, climate change-driven sea level rise will expose more than 1,600 critical infrastructure assets along American coasts — including affordable housing such as Titusville Towers, schools, sewer plants and energy facilities — to flooding at least twice per year, especially for those public assets that support the poor.
"This burden is borne inequitably: more than half the infrastructure at risk by 2050 is in communities at a disadvantage based on historical and ongoing racism, discrimination, and pollution," the report says.
A similar study last year found that storms that ride in on rising seas due to global warming will displace millions of Floridians in low-lying areas by century's end.
What else did UCS's report say about Brevard?
The report cites the following risks of disruptive flooding for the following Brevard facilities in 2050, under a "medium" sea level rise scenario:
- Titusville Towers — every two weeks
- An affordable housing facility at Avenue D, in Melbourne — twice per year
- The Discovery Solar Center power plant at Kennedy Space Center — once per month
- Four electrical substations at or near Patrick Space Force Base — three every two weeks, one twice per year
How did UCS do their study?
They determined the water heights reached or exceeded an average of two, 12, or 26 times per year at each of 119 tide gauges operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
They also looked at NOAA elevation data.
For future periods, they added gauge-specific sea-level-rise projections to present-day mean high water levels to yield a projected "future disruptive flooding water level."
What is a medium scenario of sea level rise?
Based on scenarios developed by a United States interagency task force, UCS's medium scenario is 3.2 feet. Low is 1.6 feet, and high is 6.5 feet.
What about statewide impacts in a 'high' scenario?
Under the high sea level rise scenario, almost 4,600 essential buildings and facilities in Florida are at risk of disruptive flooding twice annually. Under the medium scenario, less than one-quarter that number (1,138) are at risk. And under the low scenario, less than one-tenth that number (374) are in danger of flooding
What about nationwide?
Whereas 536 communities are expected to contain inundated infrastructure in 2030, that number jumps to nearly 703 communities by 2050, with Louisiana (334), New Jersey (304), Florida (170), Maryland (140), and California (137) being home to the highest numbers of at-risk coastal infrastructure assets inthis time frame.
How many more people does sea level rise put at risk?
The infrastructure at risk by 2050 serves a population of almost 2.9 million people today, about equivalent of the combined populations of Houston and Washington, D.C.
By then, more than half of the critical infrastructure assets at risk of disruptive flooding twice or more per year, is located in disadvantaged communities.
"These communities are already underserved and overburdened by pollution, energy costs, health problems, housing costs, and other stressors," the report says.
Contact Waymer at (321)261-5903 or jwaymer@floridatoday.com.
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