Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker Preview, Prediction, and Odds | August 17th, 2024

Mateusz Gamrot (24-2 MMA, 7-2 UFC, 8 KO, 5 SUB) is set to fight Dan Hooker (23-12 MMA, 13-8 UFC, 11 KO, 7 SUB) at the RAC Arena in Western Australia. This lightweight bout is the third headliner at UFC 305 this weekend. Gamrot enters this event on a three-fight win streak, proving himself an improved and advanced MMA fighter ready for a title shot.

Hooker also enters this one with an impressive two-fight win streak of his own. However, this fight will be a true test for him if he aims to be a top-five contender in the lightweight division, where the best pound-for-pound fighter, Islam Makhachev (26-1 MMA, 15-1 UFC, 5 KO, 12 SUB) stands unmatched.

Although Dan Hooker is the home favorite, the odds favor Gamrot in this bout. Let’s see if the statistics say differently.

Key Stats

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Mateusz Gamrot

Title contender Gamrot, ranked 5th in the lightweight division, goes into this fight after an impressive unanimous decision win against Rafael Dos Anjos this past March. Gamrot had a 55% significant strike rate. In addition to that, Gamrot had 72 more total strikes throughout the duration of the fight while maintaining an 84% accuracy with head strikes.

However, it was the knockdown, 7:01 minutes of ground control, and 11 takedowns that really set Gamrot apart. He has been electrifying in his last three fights after a surprising loss to Beneil Dariush in October 2022.

He has clearly improved over the past two years, throwing a larger amount of strikes in his performances while adding in his grappling. Gamrot comes from wrestling and no-gi grappling background, so to see these improvements on the feet makes him a top-five fighter to fear in the lightweight division.

Dan Hooker

Heavy-hitter Dan Hooker, ranked 11th in the lightweight division, is back for his first fight of the year after his split decision win over Jalin Turner in July 2023. He comes back to the UFC with new tattoos and a new mindset and hopes to take Gamrot’s spot in the top five. In his last fight, Hooker had a knockdown and averaged a 63% significant strike rate.

He also managed to defend 2 of 3 attempted takedowns in this fight and lead the fight in ground control. He is certainly a seasoned fighter, with 21 UFC fights in his career, much more than his opponent with only 9 UFC career fights.

Hooker also has an 80% takedown defense, so he will be difficult to control on the ground and in the clinch. The true testimony will be if Hooker is still an elite fighter at this point in his UFC career. It has been over a year since his last fight, and it is often difficult to come into the octagon renewed after a long period of time.

Prediction

Dan Hooker is a talented, experienced fighter and has some serious knockout power, but he is outmatched here. Gamrot is a well-balanced fighter who has proven himself as a contender for the lightweight title. Dan Hooker’s take-down defense and ground defense will be key in this one. It is likely Gamrot will attempt a significant amount of takedowns in this fight.

Unless Dan Hooker can produce an impressive early KO, Gamrot will heat up as the fight goes on and pick up a decision win. However, Hooker has a great reach advantage. If he can maintain distance and avoid takedowns, he could do well on the scorecards. I see some profit in going against the spread. Take Dan Hooker to close the gap against Mateusz Gamrot.

Final Pick

Dan Hooker +3.5 (+100)

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Article originally written by Dylan Perez