Caleb Williams 2024 Fantasy Outlook: Rookie Set to Break Records

Caleb Williams will have all eyes on him in Chicago, as expectations are high for the top overall pick for him to succeed very early on.

For the Bears, this is one of the most set-up landing spots for the USC signal caller, as the number one overall pick belonged to the Carolina Panthers in that massive trade.

Williams has a plethora of weapons around him as a rookie quarterback and a decent offensive line. With new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, the 22-year-old could easily be the best Chicago Bears quarterback in franchise history just in his first year as a pro.

For fantasy, will he be a draft-day steal as an elite distributor of the football or will he have growing pains early on transitioning from college to the NFL?

Caleb Williams College Production and Stats

Photo byJacob RiceonUnsplash

At USC, the 6'1" and 215-pound passer did not have much help around him personnel-wise and with head coach Lincoln Riley, as his success from Oklahoma as a freshman Sooner didn't exactly transfer to Southern California.

Despite some struggles with the program winning, Caleb Williams made the most of it, winning the Heisman Trophy, Maxwell Award, and Walter Camp Award for his 2022 season. The unanimous All-American was AP and SN College Football Player of the Year for his 2022 campaign, also becoming Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year and First-team All-Pac-12.

Williams followed up his 2022 hot streak with sort of a down year in 2023, as his passing yards went from 4,537 to 3,633 and his total touchdowns went from 52 to 41 with the same amount of interceptions with five.

In terms of rushing, he wasn't a frequent runner but ran when he had to, especially in the red zone. Williams had 503 yards on the ground and 21 touchdowns in the last two seasons combined.

With ten total career interceptions as a Trojan but 11 fumbles the past two years, one of the knocks on him was that he plays hero ball too much and doesn't take care of the football.

Still, this was good enough to get drafted number one overall, as his supporting cast in the NFL will be way better than what he had at USC. Caleb Williams consistently had to take the team out of big holes cause of the defense and carried a lot on his shoulders.

Caleb Williams 2024 Fantasy Outlook

In fantasy football, normally huge rushing yards and touchdowns are the key to success, so it will be interesting to see how Caleb Williams does, especially if he can achieve greatness and football immortality.

While I don't imagine him running that much, especially compared to the number two overall pick Jayden Daniels for the Washington Commanders, his supporting cast is way better with a rookie top-ten pick at receiver.

However, unlike the former Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields, who was traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers, general manager Ryan Poles has set up Williams to break records.

Chicago can have him be a distributor to his playmakers, as the Bears signed both running back D'Andre Swift and tight end Gerald Everett in free agency. They also traded for veteran Keenan Allen this offseason and drafted ninth overall Washington's Rome Odunze, who Williams can mesh with as fellow first-round draft picks.

Not to mention other pass catchers like star wide receiver DJ Moore and tight end Cole Kmet, who they re-signed on the roster last offseason.

As of now, Caleb Williams is the consensus 15th-best quarterback for fantasy and is drafted around rounds nine and ten. According to his FantasyPros ADP, he is the first rookie quarterback taken among a huge list of passers like Kyler Murray but way before Anthony Richardson and is three spots ahead of Daniels.

Final Thoughts on Caleb Williams

Although there is some concern with his locker room presence, gaining the "keys to the city" of Chicago with little resistance, his play of the field speaks for itself despite his critics. I expect Caleb Williams to reach his lofty goals and high aspirations, even in his rookie year despite some even throwing out the term "bust" just cause of the hype.

Williams needs over 3,838 yards passing in a single season to achieve what no Bears quarterback has done for Chicago since 1995 with Erik Kramer. According to Statmuse, 29 passing touchdowns is also the benchmark set by Kramer, as Williams can easily achieve that.

According to Statmuse, Fields has the second most in rushing touchdowns, with eight, but easily has the most rushing yards for a quarterback with 1,143, a number Williams won't touch in his career for the Bears.

Johnny Lujack in 1950 had the most running touchdowns for a quarterback with 11, as the rookie had done that for USC twice essentially with low rushing volume for two seasons.

This showcased his efficiency as a rusher and a passer with his 66.6 and 68.6 completion percentages in 2022 and 2023, differing from Fields.

The bar is low for the rookie star, as I would put those records as the potential floor for Caleb Williams and what he can do for the Chicago Bears in year one.

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Article originally written by Andrew Kim