Sales of 100% Fossil-Fueled Cars Are Declining in the US

Photo byToyota Motors Corp

Sales of vehicles powered solely by internal combustion engines (ICE) are steadily declining in the United States, according to a recent report by the Alliance for Automotive Innovation (AAI). In the first half of 2024, traditional gas-powered vehicles experienced the largest market share drop of any vehicle category, decreasing by 2.3%. Although these vehicles still dominate new car sales, the shift towards hybrids (HEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), and electric vehicles (EVs) is increasingly evident. CleanTechnica reports that gas car sales fell by 14% in Q2 2024 compared to the same period in 2019, underscoring a multi-year trend of declining fossil-fueled vehicle sales.

A Decline Decades in the Making

Not long ago, ICE vehicles constituted nearly the entire US market—about 97% in 2016. However, this dominance is waning, with alternatively-powered vehicles projected to comprise a quarter of all new car sales in the coming years. In 2024, ICE vehicles accounted for 78% of new car sales, an 18% decrease since the pre-pandemic era. The shift has been largely driven by expanded hybrid, PHEV, and EV offerings from manufacturers, aided by federal and state incentives.

AAI’s report highlights that in Q2 2024, automakers sold approximately 386,000 electrified vehicles in the US, making up nearly 10% of overall light-duty vehicle sales. This marks a 0.6% increase from Q1 2024, translating to 42,000 more sales. Notably, this is the highest quarterly EV sales volume recorded to date, surpassing the previous high in Q3 2023 by around 8,300 vehicles. In the first half of 2024, over 730,000 EVs—including hybrids and PHEVs—were sold, accounting for 9.7% of all light vehicle sales and reflecting a market share growth of 0.81% compared to the same period in 2023.

Why the ICE Market Is Shrinking

Between 2016 and mid-2024, the market share for ICE vehicles dropped from 97% to 78%, with gains going mainly to traditional hybrids (+10.3%), battery electric vehicles (+7.1%), and plug-in hybrids (+1.7%). While ICE sales continue to decline in 2024, the pace has slowed compared to pandemic years. Sam Fiorani, Vice President of Global Vehicle Forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions, explains that early adopters have already transitioned to EVs, and growth may slow as manufacturers target less tech-savvy consumers.

Shifts in Consumer and Manufacturer Behavior

As automakers push toward electrification, some consumers express reluctance. For instance, Toyota's EV and hybrid sales are up by 58% in 2024, while its overall US sales have risen by just 5.5%. This may be partly due to limited ICE model availability, such as the Toyota Camry, now offered exclusively as a hybrid. Despite this trend, some automakers, like Honda, Hyundai, and Kia, still provide conventional gas-powered sedans.

For some car enthusiasts, the transition away from traditional ICE vehicles feels like a loss. The absence of classic models, such as the Ford Country Squire wagon or Jaguar's six-cylinder engines, evokes nostalgia and resistance. However, whether driven by consumer demand or manufacturer strategy, the decline of traditional gasoline cars is undeniable.

The Takeaway

While EV advocates might prefer a faster transition to all-electric models, hybrids and plug-in hybrids play a crucial role in familiarizing consumers with alternatives to conventional cars. Hybrids can act as a gateway, helping drivers adjust to higher fuel efficiency and fewer gas station visits. This gradual shift, while not ideal for some, remains a positive step toward reducing fossil fuel dependence. As conventional ICE vehicle sales continue to decline, even modest gains in hybrid and EV sales signify progress toward a cleaner transportation future.