After 'early and violent start' to Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA updates forecast

Aug. 8 (UPI) -- NOAA said in an update Thursday atmospheric and oceanic conditions have combined to set the stage for an extremely active hurricane season that may be the busiest on record.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center updated the number of expected named storms for this season to be 17-24.

Between eight and 13 of those could become hurricanes, while four to seven will be major hurricanes with wind speeds of 111 mph or greater.

"The hurricane season got off to an early and violent start with Hurricane Beryl, the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record," said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad in a statement. "NOAA's update to the hurricane seasonal outlook is an important reminder that the peak of hurricane season is right around the corner, when historically the most significant impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms tend to occur."

A typical Atlantic basin hurricane season will see 14 named storms with seven hurricanes and three major ones.

"Atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to support an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with a 90% probability of this result," NOAA said in a statement, "2024 has only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a negligible chance of a below-normal season."

"Hurricane Beryl broke multiple long-standing records in the Atlantic basin, and we're continuing to see the climatological hallmarks of an active season," said NOAA Climate Prediction Center lead hurricane season forecaster Matthew Rosencrans in a statement. "Sea surface temperatures remain abnormally high, and La Nina is still expected to emerge during the hurricane season, so the time to prepare is now."

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are warmer than average while tropical Atlantic trade winds are weaker. Vertical wind shear is reduced while west Africa's monsoon is enhanced.

NOAA said the Atlantic basin is also in a continued warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation that reappeared in 1995. According to NOAA, that development has "been favoring more active hurricane seasons."

As La Nina develops in coming months, NOAA said, it can enable storms to develop and intensify.

This hurricane season has already seen catastrophic damage from Beryl with at least 45 people killed on Caribbean Islands and in Texas, Louisiana and Vermont.

Tropical Storm Debby made two landfalls and had knocked out power to more than 131,000 Thursday in North Carolina during the storm's second landfall, with heavy rain and widespread flooding.