Estimates of annual U.S. job growth cut by 818,000 to 2.1 million

Aug. 21 (UPI) -- The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday revised down estimates of U.S. nonfarm payroll jobs created in the 12 months ending in March 2024.

The BLS revised the one-year estimate down by 818,000 a 0.5% reduction from the initial report the biggest downward revision since 2009.

The original estimate of jobs created from April 2023 to March 2024 was 2.9 million.

The BLS said jobs numbers are routinely estimated by the Current Employment Statistics survey estimates, based on state unemployment insurance tax records employers are required to file but the estimated revised downward Wednesday is not final.

"The existing employment series are not updated with the release of the preliminary benchmark estimate. The data for all CES series will be updated when the final benchmark revision is issued," the BLS said.

That final revision will be published in February 2025.

The annual national CES employment series estimates over the last 10 years have averaged plus or minus one-tenth of 1% of the total non-farm employment.

If the Federal Reserve interprets this revision as a weakening of the labor market, it could be an added impetus for the Fed to cut interest rates.

"The labor market appears weaker than originally reported. A deteriorating labor market will allow the Fed to highlight both sides of the dual mandate and investors should expect the Fed to prepare markets for a cut at the September meeting," Chief LPL Financial economist Jeffrey Roach told CNBC .

According to the BLS, the biggest revised preliminary jobs numbers came in professional and business services with -358,000, followed by leisure and hospitality with -150,000.

Retail trade jobs were -129,000 while manufacturing jobs were preliminarily estimated to be 115,000 lower than first reported.