Analysis: Exploding pagers, walkie-talkies usher in new, dangerous Israel-Hezbollah escalation

BEIRUT, Lebanon , Sept. 18 (UPI) -- The unprecedented, highly sophisticated pager attack that Israel allegedly carried out on Tuesday against Hezbollah members in Lebanon and Syria, killing a dozen people and wounding nearly 3,000 others, pushed the confrontation between the two enemies to a new dangerous level, military analysts said.

Then, on Wednesday, a new wave of explosions, involving walkie-talkies, solar equipment and lithium batteries, resulted in killing nine people and injuring 300 others across Lebanon, bringing the total number of casualties to 21 dead and 3,100 injured, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry and security sources. The explosions also set fire to apartments and shops.

It is still unclear how thousands of Hezbollah pagers, which were reportedly delivered to the Iran-backed militant group three or four months ago, exploded on Tuesday in various Lebanese regions, particularly in Beirut's southern suburbs, the group's main stronghold. Similar attacks were reported in Syria, where 14 people were injured.

Tuesday's death toll, originally announced as nine, has risen to 12, including two children, and the wounded to 2,800, according to a new count by Health Minister Firas Abiad. According to Hezbollah, most were members of the group working in its various units and institutions.

No claim of responsibility

No one has so far claimed responsibility, but Hezbollah is certain that Israel was behind the deadly attack.

Kassem Kassir, a political analyst specialized in Islamic movements and close to Hezbollah, said the group hasn't provided any information on how the pager attack was executed. Hezbollah chief Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah is expected to reveal some details during an appearance Thursday.

"In my view, it wasn't the military cadres of Hezbollah who were targeted. This kind of communication device is not used for military purposes," Kassir told UPI. "The one who fires a missile does not carry a pager."

Those who were hit were employees in the group's health institutions and logistics units, he said, adding that "maybe also some members of the security units in charge of ordinary protection."

He however noted that such an operation "has a psychological dimension more than a military one."

According to The New York Times, Israel carried out its operation against Hezbollah by implanting explosive material, as little as 1 or 2 ounces, next to the battery of each of some 3,000 pagers ordered by the militant group from a Taiwanese company.

Riad Kahwaji, who heads the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai, described Tuesday's explosions as "an unprecedented cyber-attack; a Hollywood or James bond style."

A huge strike

"Rigging some 3,000 or 5,000 pagers and exploding them simultaneously at the same time is a huge, huge strike," Kahwaji told UPI. He said he believed the attack has caused "a serious disruption" of Hezbollah's communication infrastructure and will severely impact its command of control and operations for the foreseeable future.

Hezbollah members have dropped using cell phones to avoid being tracked by Israel after hundreds of them were killed in targeted assassinations since the Gaza war broke out last October. Shifting to primitive communication networks and using pagers, however, did not keep them safe.

Hezbollah has started its own investigation into what has been viewed as the most serious security breach it has so far experienced to determine the reasons that led to these simultaneous explosions.

Hisham Jaber, a Lebanese military expert and former army general, said Hezbollah knows from where the pagers were imported, who was behind the shipment, and who received them and distributed the pagers to the thousands of its members.

"It is a mortal sin for not having checked the booby-trapped beepers before distributing them," Jaber told UPI. "When they bring such new devices, they should open them and check if they are safe. There is no discussion about that."

Too much confidence

He cited "nonchalance" or "too much confidence" in the process adopted by the Hezbollah official in charge of the shipment.

Jaber dismissed that the pager attacks have impacted Hezbollah fighters and command, arguing that they will not change "the course of the battle."

"Seventy percent of those who were targeted work in logistics, and they are not from the big cadres," he noted, adding that the attacks did not affect Hezbollah's own communication network.

"It is a wired network with many other networks connected to each other, linked to a second and third network that only they [Hezbollah] know about and keep under watch," Jaber said.

The attacks, however, left the Lebanese in shock and terror with pictures and videos circulating on Whatsapp and online showing bloodied people lying on the ground with their fingers amputated, their faces disfigured and waists with deep wounds.

"The psychological impact was very important, as if Israel was telling Hezbollah that in the next war, it is capable of reaching them whatever devices they have," Jaber said.

With such a never-seen-before attack anywhere worldwide, Israel -- if that is the culprit-- is taking the confrontation with Hezbollah to a whole new level.

Something yet to come?

Israel has been threatening to expand its attacks on Hezbollah to force the withdrawal of its fighters from the border area and allow the return of thousands of displaced Israelis to their homes in northern Israel. Are the fresh explosions a pre-emptive or preparatory strike for something yet to come?

"Hezbollah is expected to try to restrain itself as much as possible because it still does not want to go into a full-scale war with Israel," Kahwaji said. "It will have to figure out a way to retaliate at a higher level than its usual daily attacks, without going too far as to justify to Israel to carry out a massive retaliation."

He explained that when a country intends to launch a major offensive against another country, the first action it would take is to destroy its communications. "This is exactly what is happening to Hezbollah now."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is turning a deaf ear to U.S. demands not to escalate against Lebanon and trigger an all-out war a few months before the U.S. presidential elections in November.

Israel, supported by the U.S. and the West, has demonstrated intelligence and technological superiority but Hezbollah still has many cards, according to Jaber.

Although Israel has killed nearly 500 Hezbollah fighters and commanders during 11 months of fighting, it is just 1% of its estimated 50,000-strong military force.

"Until now, Israel has failed to know where Hezbollah's precision missiles, the Radwan elite brigade, the Russian Yakhont anti-ship missiles and tunnel network are," Jaber said.