Tropical Storm Milton forms in Gulf; Florida threatened again

Oct. 5 (UPI) -- Tropical Storm Milton formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday afternoon with the risk of "life-threatening impacts" to Florida's west coast, according to the National Hurricane Center, just nine days after Hurricane Helene struck the state.

Two hurricanes already were churning with no threat to land in the Atlantic Ocean: Kirk, a Category 3 storm, and Leslie, which became a hurricane late Friday.

NHC had been tracking the disturbance in the Gulf since Friday.

In the 10 a.m. update, NHC said a Tropical Depression had formed. About 2 1/2 hours later it was designated a tropical storm in an update.

Most of Florida is in NHC's forecast cone.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 35 of the state's 67 counties.

Milton, the 13th named storm of the season in the Atlantic, is projected to become a hurricane by early Monday. The system could become a major hurricane -- at least a Category 3 -- while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico, NHC said.

On the forecast track, the storm is forecast to stay over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.

In the 3 p.m. p.m. CDT advisory , Milton had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and was about 245 miles north-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico, and about 385 miles west of Progreso, Mexico. It was moving north-northeast at 3 mph.

"Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for portions of Florida on Sunday," NHC said.

Interests on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system, according to NHC.

Swells are forecast "to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions" by early next week, NHC said.

Significant rain also is forecast for Florida.

"Areas of heavy rainfall will also impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday through Wednesday," the NHC said. "This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Rainfall of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across Florida, including the Keys, through Wednesday night.

On Saturday South Florida already had heavy rain and flooding from a "precursor event," according to the National Weather Service in Miami. That includes a "marginal risk" of flash flooding for portion of South Florida.

Oct 5, 1PM - Before any impacts from TD14 reach SoFL, our region will be dealing with a heavy rain/flooding threat from a precursor event, with 3-5"of rain broadly, up to 7" locally thru Tuesday. @NWSWPC has a marginal risk for flash flooding for portions of SoFL today/tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/kOIA2mewCv — NWS Miami (@NWSMiami) October 5, 2024

Florida's west coast has already been hit by two hurricanes this season.

Hurricane Helene hit the coast near Perry in the Big Bend Region on Sept. 26 as a Category 4 storm.

Hurricane Debby hit nearby Steinhatchee as a Category 1 storm on Aug. 5.

Kirk, in the 5 p.m. EDT advisory by the NHC, had maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, and was about 1,140 miles northeast of The Northern Leeward Islands and about 1,435 miles west-southwest of The Azores. Kirk was moving north-northwest at 31 mph.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles.

"Weakening is forecast through early next week, but Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next couple of days," NHC said.

Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles. They are expected to spread to the East Coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on Saturday night and Sunday, and to the Azores on Monday.

They are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Leslie was designated as a hurricane in the 11 p.m. Friday NHC advisory.

In the 5 a.m. EDT update , Leslie had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, and was about 810 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands. Leslie was moving west-northwest at 13 mph.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.

NHC said a gradual weakening is forecast to begin Sunday.