Storm tracker: NHC tracking tropical disturbance that is expected to become Tropical Storm Ernesto

The National Hurricane Center is tracking a disturbance that is moving rapidly westward and could become the next named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

The NHC posted a tropical weather outlook for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five on Sunday, and in a Monday morning advisory said the system is expected to "continue with some decrease in forward speed" during the next couple of days.

The disturbance is forecast to move across portions of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening.

Currently, maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts, however some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression later Monday and become a tropical storm as it nears the Leeward Islands.

Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands under tropical storm watches

The NHC said in a 5 a.m. ET advisory Monday that a tropical storm watch is in effect for the following:

• Guadeloupe
• St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
• Saba and St. Eustatius
• St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
• Sint Maarten
• British Virgin Islands
• U.S. Virgin Islands
• Puerto Rico
• Vieques
• Culebra

The NHC says a tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Atlantic storm tracker

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Five spaghetti models

Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Storm tracker: NHC tracking tropical disturbance that is expected to become Tropical Storm Ernesto