The odds on Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform, swung in favor of the vice president on Saturday night as she and running mate Tim Walz concluded their four-day tour of five battleground states .
As of Tuesday at 10 a.m. EDT, the betting – which legally can't be done in the U.S. – put the likelihood of Harris winning the election at 52% and Trump's at 45%. A month ago, bettors placed Trump's odds of winning as high as 71%.
The odds on Polymarket represent current betting patterns and don't suggest a potential margin of victory as polling does, but the outlooks for Harris and Trump changed significantly in the past four weeks. The bets closely track the movements of Real Clear Politics' poll average.
Election odds turn slightly toward a Harris victory
Will Trump win? Odds nearly as accurate as a coin flip so far
Within this election cycle, the Polymarket bettors predicted days in advance that Ohio Sen. JD Vance would become Trump's running mate and Harris would become the Democratic nominee. Conversely, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro was a runaway favorite on the betting site – except for just the penultimate day when Walz held the lead.
How accurate have election odds been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866 , according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The two upsets came in 1948 when Democrat Harry Truman beat eight-to-one odds to defeat Republican Thomas Dewey, and in 2016 when Trump overcame seven-to-two odds to beat Hillary Clinton.
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