Calm before the storms: The peak of a busy hurricane season is near

The Sept. 10 peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is rapidly approaching, with most activity expected between mid-August and mid-October, according to the National Hurricane Center . The tropical Atlantic was calm as of Tuesday morning, but that will change over the remainder of the hurricane season, which is forecast to be very active.

In the Atlantic basin, a typical season will yield 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three become major hurricanes.

How many named storms have there been this year?

Where have the storms tracked?

“The hurricane season got off to an early and violent start with Hurricane Beryl, the earliest category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record,” said NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad. “NOAA’s update to the hurricane seasonal outlook is an important reminder that the peak of hurricane season is right around the corner, when historically the most significant impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms tend to occur.”

Hurricane forecast

According to NOAA's latest hurricane season outlook , this year could see 17 to 24 named storms, including eight to 13 hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes before the official end of the season on Nov. 30. These numbers include storms that have already come and gone this summer.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions indicate an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with a 90% probability. There is only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a negligible chance of a below-normal season.

The ramp-up to a busy hurricane season

Historically, about two-thirds of all Atlantic hurricane activity occurs between Aug. 20 and Oct. 10.

Aug. 20–Sept. 2 typically marks the real ramp-up for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. The primary threat-formation area for major hurricanes in late August is the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

What makes September the peak month for the hurricane activity?

Two conditions make September a prime month for tropical development: surface water temperatures and wind shear. Surface water temperatures of 80 degrees and above are the perfect fuel for developing hurricanes. Water temperatures peak in September and October. Upper-level winds can hinder a storm’s development or weaken an existing storm by blowing across its top and can tear apart hurricanes. This wind shear is low from mid-August through mid-September.

Factors that could influence this year’s forecast

The dry Saharan air that prevented tropical storm development during in the summer is expected to subside in August. The Atlantic ocean basin is expected to be remarkably active because of several factors:

• Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.
• Reduced vertical wind shear.
• Weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds.
• An enhanced West African monsoon.

Contributing: Doyle Rice

Source: USA TODAY Network reporting and research; NOAA; Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Calm before the storms: The peak of a busy hurricane season is near