The biggest deciders in winning a fantasy football league is the breakout stars of the season. Similar to sleepers, these players outperform their draft position and put up stats that are far more than prior years
In 2023, rookie Puka Nacua was the fourth-best fantasy football wide receiver in full-PPR leagues, per FantasyPros data . In 2022, Josh Jacobs led the league in rushing yards and finished as the third-best running back. In 2021, Jonathan Taylor ran all over the league to the tune of 373.1 fantasy points.
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What goes into a breakout? Factors like a new coordinator, new quarterback, and bigger role in the offense can make a huge difference. Rookies are also included here, though those can be considered more debuts than breakouts. With that in mind, here are 10 breakout candidates for the 2024 season:
2024 fantasy football breakout candidates
ADP = Average Draft Position, via FantasyPros aggregate data, for full-PPR leagues.
The No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft will start for Washington this season. His pass-catching corps took a hit with the Jahan Dotson trade but Terry McLaurin is still a reliable No. 1 option and Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler are proven players in the backfield. With a defense that's lacking speed, especially in the back seven, Daniels may be playing from behind more often than not. His deep ball accuracy and scrambling in college could translate early on and take him from middle-of-the-pack to top-eight fantasy quarterback status.
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Denver just cut Samaje Perine Tuesday in a move that signals confidence in running backs currently on the roster. The coaching staff has raved about McLaughlin since he arrived last season as an undrafted free agent. Last year, he led all running backs with at least 75 carries in yards after contact (2.26) and finished second in yards per carry (5.4). In 2023, Broncos starter Javonte Williams wasn't as explosive as he was prior to his 2022 knee injury. Denver's offensive line is built to run the ball well and McLaughlin should benefit from that, especially if Williams has another down year.
Yes, the No. 5-ranked player in full-PPR leagues is a breakout candidate. Robinson had highlight-reel runs in 2023 as a rookie and finished as the No. 9 running back in fantasy football. But the big changes are an upgrade at quarterback - Kirk Cousins - and new coaching staff, including former Los Angeles Rams quarterbacks coach Zac Robinson as offensive coordinator. In 2023, the Rams' Kyren Williams played in just 12 games but made the Pro Bowl on 19 carries per game. Robinson looks like a prime candidate to be the bell-cow back and become the top running back in fantasy football.
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White is slated to be the lead running back in Las Vegas in 2024. He ended last season on a high with 14.1 fantasy points per game in the final four weeks. Las Vegas' offense could struggle this season given the quarterback situation and free agent signing Alexander Mattison could vulture some carries from White's workload. But at RB23, White is a low-risk investment who could pay off in year three of his career. He's the most dynamic running back in the Raiders' backfield and that could make him a reliable RB2 this season.
Like Robinson, Harrison Jr. is expected to produce in 2024. But he may exceed the lofty expectations for one of the top wide receiver prospects of the last decade. The last time Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray had a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver for a full season, DeAndre Hopkins was the No. 4 wide receiver in PPR leagues in 2020. Harrison Jr. is immediately the top passing game threat in Arizona. Cardinals' offensive coordinator Drew Petzing showed lots of creativity last year with lesser talent than Harrison Jr. This should be fun to watch.
Shakir was one of the most reliable wide receivers in the NFL in 2023. Among pass-catchers with at least 35 targets, he led the league in catch rate - percentage of targets caught - at 86.7%. No other wide receiver cleared 80%. With Stefon Diggs out of Buffalo, there's no established hierarchy at the wide receiver position. Shakir's been with the Bills the longest of the current starters and should benefit from that familiarity.
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Williams played sparingly as a rookie in 2021 due to a knee injury from college and missed four games in 2022 due to violating the NFL's gambling policy. But he's set for a full, healthy season in year three. His third year in college was a breakout season as well that saw him move to first-round pick status. He is the third option in the Detroit passing game behind wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta but he had an incredible 15.8 air yards per target in 2023, meaning he's the deep threat of one of the top offenses in the NFL. It's unlikely he'll outshine St. Brown but Williams could be in a situation similar to former Alabama teammate DeVonta Smith . He has the speed to make the most of his smaller target share.
Flowers was the best first-round rookie wide receiver in 2023. He especially stepped up down the stretch of the fantasy season, averaging 14.9 points per game from Weeks 12-17. His 71.3% catch rate in 2023 was 13th among wide receivers with at least 35 targets and the best among rookies. The Ravens offense are expected to improve in year two under offensive coordinator Todd Monken and Flowers' strong play down the stretch bodes well for 2024. He and tight end Mark Andrews will be the top options in the passing game.
At a top-heavy tight end position in fantasy football, Musgrave is a low-risk, high-reward option later in drafts. He missed the fantasy playoff weeks as a rookie in 2023 due to a lacerated kidney but came on strong in the NFL playoffs with 52 yards and a touchdown in his playoff debut against the Cowboys. Green Bay's pass catching corps hierarchy is hard to read ahead of the season. There's a stable of capable wide receivers and Musgrave and Tucker Kraft are solid options at tight end. LaPorta was an exception to the rule that tight ends often take time to develop. Musgrave enters 2024 as the starter and with that should have the opportunity to shine as a late-round pick.
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Freiermuth was the No. 30 tight end in PPR leagues in 2023 after missing five games in the middle of the season. But he has two factors for improvement this season: a new quarterback who has a track record of throwing to tight ends in Russell Wilson and a new offensive coordinator in Arthur Smith. With Diontae Johnson no longer on the roster , Freiermuth looks set to be the No. 2 target in the passing game behind George Pickens . That means plenty of volume that could see him reach top-10 status at a the position in 2024.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fantasy football rankings: Zamir White, Khalil Shakir, and other breakouts for 2024
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