Trump, the Republican nominee , holds a slight lead over Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris in two of the largest betting markets: Betfair Exchange, the biggest peer-to-peer U.K. betting platform, and Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform. The Trump's odds widened to 53-46 on Polymarket in the past few days.
The presidential election betting – which legally can't be done in the U.S. – clashes with recent polling of the U.S. electorate:
◾ A new USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll , gives Harris a 48%-43% advantage that's still within the poll's margin of error. The poll of 1,000 likely voters was taken by landline and cell phone Aug. 25-28 – about a week after the Democratic National Convention.
◾ Real Clear Politics' polling average has put Harris a couple points ahead of Trump since the August convention. Trump had a nearly 3-point lead over President Joe Biden before Biden dropped out of the race .
2024 polling averages give Harris slight edge in recent weeks
How do you square the conflicting signals from gambling markets and polling of voters?
Harry Crane , a Rutgers University statistics professor, has studied election outcomes since 2016 and compared those to the predictions of polling and betting markets. He points out, "The market price at any given time reflects the collective opinion of the market based on the information that's available."
And the information to compare Trump and Harris has been limited – besides their campaigns' verbal jabs. Bettors may be circling Sept. 10, the first 2024 presidential debate for Harris , as their next best opportunity to rethink their wagers.
Gamblers aren't the only ones interested in next week's debate. A recent survey from Prolific, an online research platform , found 7 out of 10 of their respondents said they planned to watch. Younger and Black voters expressed the highest interest in watching, according to the poll.
How betting odds for Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidency changed
Odds that Trump would win the presidency this year peaked on the first day of the Republican National Convention, according to Betfair and Polymarket data. In the past week, bettors also gave him a slight edge over Harris. It's the first time gamblers gave Trump the edge over a competitor in an election year after Labor Day.
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866 , according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization. One of those longshots was Trump in 2016. Even on Election Day, bettors gave Trump just a 17% chance of defeating Hillary Clinton, according to Betfair's historical data.
How Harris' and Trump's odds of winning the 2024 presidential election changed
The 2024 election odds are sure to swing in the two months before Election Day on Nov. 5 , considering Betfair has taken already $78 million in bets. Still, that's just a fraction of the record $2.23 billion wagered on Betfair during the 2020 election.
So what has slightly opened the odds gap between Harris and Trump in the past few days?
In five of the last 19 days, the margin between Trump and Harris has been two percentage points or less, but the gap has widened slightly past three days on Polymarket.
Perhaps bettors see Harris' slim lead nationally, but they are more focused on reports like those from the Silver Bulletin where Nate Silver estimates that Trump has a 56% chance of winning the Electoral College vote .
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