Offshore bettors think Vice President Kamala Harris narrowed or even took the lead in the 2024 presidential race following her first debate Tuesday night with former President Donald Trump.
With $750,000 bet in the first 50 minutes of the debate, the odds swung from Trump to Harris on Betfair Exchange, the biggest U.K. peer-to-peer betting platform. The presidential election betting can't be done legally in the U.S.
On Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform, Trump's and Harris' likelihood of winning were tied at the end of the debate. After moving slightly in Trump's favor on Wednesday, Polymarket bettors set both Harris' and Trump's odds of winning at 49% as of 6 p.m. EDT.
Who won the debate? Harris' forceful performance rattles a defensive Trump.
How Harris' odds of winning jumped during the debate
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Bettors weren't the only ones who thought Harris moved the needle in her favor on Tuesday night. Nearly two-thirds of debate watchers said in a flash poll by CNN that Harris won. That correlation follows the results of other presidential debates.
Presidential debate replay: Harris puts Trump on defensive over Jan. 6, race relations, abortion
First debates have had the biggest impact on polling and betting odds during the past four election cycles, based on data from Betfair and Real Clear Politics. The way the public has viewed the debate's outcome has generally snowballed in the following days.
How Trump's and Biden's odds and polling changed after the June debate
That trend was clear in Trump's debate with President Joe Biden in late June. Trump's odds and polling jumped following Biden's faltering debate performance , which ultimately led Biden to drop out of the race.
As unusual as this summer's debate between Trump and Biden may have been, the polling and gambling bets actually followed a similar pattern to Trump's two other presidential campaigns. Both Biden and Hillary Clinton extended their leads over Trump after the first debates. Clearly, the results in November were significantly different. It's too early to tell the trajectory of either candidate following Tuesday night's debate.
How polls and betting odds moved after Trump's other first debates
How betting odds for Trump winning the 2024 presidency changed
Odds that Trump would win the presidency this year peaked on the first day of the Republican National Convention, according to Betfair and Polymarket data. In the past week, bettors had also given him an edge over Harris.
The 2024 election odds are sure to swing in the two months before Election Day on Nov. 5 , considering Betfair has taken already $82.7 million in bets. That total is just a fraction of the record $2.23 billion wagered on Betfair during the 2020 election.
How Harris' and Trump's odds of winning the 2024 presidential election changed
How accurate have election odds been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866 , according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization. One of those longshots was Trump in 2016. Even on Election Day, bettors gave Trump just a 17% chance of defeating Hillary Clinton, according to Betfair's historical data.
Contributing: James Powel
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Who has better odds to win the election Harris or Trump? The debate may have changed them
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