Trump's Iowa lead shrinks significantly as Kamala Harris replaces Biden, Iowa Poll shows

© Copyright 2024, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co.

Kamala Harris has significantly narrowed the presidential race in Iowa, cutting Donald Trump ’s lead to 4 percentage points in a dramatic turnaround from Joe Biden ’s double-digit deficit.

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows that Trump leads Harris 47% to 43% among likely Iowa voters — a far slimmer margin than the 18-point lead the former Republican president enjoyed over Biden in late spring.

Before Biden ended his reelection campaign , a June Iowa Poll showed Trump leading 50% to 32%.

This is the Iowa Poll’s first test of Harris’ strength against Trump since she became the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee in August .

“I wouldn’t say 4 points is comfortable” for Trump, said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. “The race has tightened significantly.”

Robert F. Kennedy Jr ., who has abandoned his independent presidential campaign but will remain on the Iowa ballot , gets 6% of the vote. That’s down from 9% in June.

Another 1% pick Libertarian presidential candidate Chase Oliver, 1% say they would vote for someone else and 1% are not sure.

The poll puts the race more closely in line with the 2020 election results, which ultimately saw Trump win Iowa by about 8 percentage points over Biden .

It also shows a sharp divide between men and women likely voters — Trump leads with men 59% to 32% over Harris. And Harris leads with women 53% to 36%.

Selzer said the poll findings “signal a change in the mood of the electorate.”

Now, 81% of all Iowans say they will definitely vote in the general election, up from 76% in June. However, some of the demographic groups more likely to favor Harris are showing increased participation.

Women show an 8-percentage-point uptick in likely voting since June, Iowans younger than 45 show a 10-point increase, city dwellers show a 6-point bounce, and those with a college degree are up 9 points.

Each of those groups gives plurality support to Kamala Harris.

“This poll may be catching newly energized voters who thought they would sit out the election at the time our June poll was taken,” Selzer said.

Likely Iowa voters’ opinions of the candidates are beginning to solidify, with greater shares saying their choice is firm.

Today, 80% say their minds are made up, an increase from 67% in June. Another 18% say they could still be persuaded — down from 29%.

Among Harris supporters, 89% say their minds are made up; it’s 84% among Trump supporters.

“The race is locking in,” Selzer said.

The Iowa Poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., surveyed 811 Iowans from Sept. 8-11. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for questions asked of 656 likely voters and 3.4 percentage points for those asked of Iowa adults.

More: How is the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted? We answer your top questions.

‘Younger, more with it’: Enthusiasm for Kamala Harris tops excitement for Donald Trump

Following the summer switch from Biden to Harris, enthusiasm among likely voters who support Harris outpaces enthusiasm among likely voters who support Trump.

According to the poll, 80% of Harris’ supporters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about her as their choice for president — compared with 74% of Trump’s supporters.

Penny Williams, a 62-year-old Keokuk resident and poll respondent, said she is very enthusiastic about supporting Harris.

“She's younger, more with it, more current and can reach the younger voters better,” she said. “Thank you, Taylor Swift,” she added, referencing the pop megastar’s endorsement of Harris immediately following the Sept. 10 presidential debate.

Williams, a Democrat, said she thought Harris performed well during the debate, though she could have gone deeper on some issues.

“She paid (Trump) back for all he did to Biden in the first one,” she said. “Biden, God bless him, he's the only one that could have beat Trump four years ago. But his time's done, so now it's hers.”

Today, 41% of Iowa adults approve of the way Harris is performing as vice president, about the same as the 42% who approved in June 2021, the last time the Iowa Poll tested her job approval.

A slightly higher percentage of Iowans now disapprove of the way Harris is doing her job as vice president: 55% disapprove, up from 50% in June 2021. Another 3% are not sure.

Harris is viewed favorably by 43% of Iowa adults and unfavorably by 54%, while 3% are not sure.

That’s about on par with Trump, who is viewed favorably by 48% of Iowans and unfavorably by 51%, with another 2% who are not sure.

Independent Iowa voters lean toward Trump

Trump and Harris each get strong majorities of support from their party bases.

Republican likely voters support Trump over Harris 94% to 2%. And likely Democratic voters support Harris over Trump 95% to 2%.

Independent voters lean toward Trump, with 41% supporting him and 36% supporting Harris.

But independent voters break on gender lines.

Independent men support Trump 46% to 33% over Harris, while independent women support Harris 40% to 35% over Trump.

Nick Finley, a 41-year-old Melcher resident and poll respondent, is an independent voter who plans to vote for the first time and to support Trump.

He said he’s decided to cast a vote in this year’s presidential race because he believes the justice system has been “railroading Trump.”

“If they can do it to him, they can do it to anybody,” he said.

Finley said he appreciates Trump’s “America First” mentality and opposes U.S. involvement in “useless wars” such as in Ukraine.

“He seems more for the people,” he said of Trump. “I like to think he can make a little bit of change, but we’ll see.”

Trump also performs best with likely voters who describe themselves as evangelical, as well as those who live in rural areas, while Harris’ best groups are those with a college degree and suburban dwellers.

Harris also leads Trump with the small group of suburban women who responded to the Iowa Poll — 69% to 27%.

Majorities of Iowans say they are worse off financially; nation is headed in the wrong direction

As the election nears, just 24% of Iowa adults believe the nation is headed in the right direction, while 69% believe it has gotten off on the wrong track. Another 7% are not sure.

That’s an improvement from June, when 17% said the U.S. was headed in the right direction and 77% said the country was on the wrong track.

Ninety-five percent of Republicans say the nation is headed in the wrong direction, while 36% of Democrats and 72% of independents agree.

Mark Franks, a 51-year-old Cedar Rapids resident and poll respondent, is among those who believe things are headed in the wrong direction, largely because of illegal immigration and inflation, he said.

“It’s just getting hard to pay for everything,” he said.

Franks said he’s not confident the situation will change, regardless of who is elected.

“The problem is they don't have anybody who knows what the real people are going through,” he said. “I'm sorry, you've got a person that's been there for four years that hasn't really done nothing. You know, her and that Joe have not done nothing, really. And then you've got Trump, who's a billionaire or whatever he is. He doesn't know what the real people are really like — people who just live day to day.”

Franks said he’s registered as a Republican, but he’s still trying to decide who he’ll vote for. He’s leaning toward Trump and hopes the former president will cut government spending and inflation.

We've been the news Iowa depends upon since 1849. Subscribe to help us continue our mission.

Franks is also among the 46% of Iowans who say they are worse off financially today than they were four years ago. Just 21% say they are better off, while 31% say they are about the same.

The percentage of those who say they are worse off is the highest it’s been in the eight times the Iowa Poll has asked the question. The previous high was in both January and November 2009 during the Great Recession, when 40% said they felt worse off than they had four years ago.

Biden’s approval rating remains low, although it has received a small bounce in the aftermath of his decision to end his reelection campaign — a decision widely praised by Democrats in Iowa and around the country.

Today, 33% approve of the job he’s doing as president, compared with 28% in June. Another 64% disapprove, down slightly from 67% over the summer. Another 3% are not sure.

Republicans’ disapproval is nearly universal, with 97% saying they disapprove of the job he’s doing, compared with 18% of Democrats.

The percentage of Iowans who view Biden favorably has held relatively steady. Today, 35% view him favorably and 63% hold an unfavorable view, while 1% are unsure.

That’s compared with 33% who held favorable views and 66% who held unfavorable views in June.

Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Des Moines Register. She is also covering the 2024 presidential race for USA TODAY as a senior national campaign correspondent. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.

About the Iowa Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Sept. 8-11, 2024, for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 811 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Dynata. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent American Community Survey estimates.

Questions based on the sample of 811 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit and, on digital platforms, links to originating content on The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Trump's Iowa lead shrinks significantly as Kamala Harris replaces Biden, Iowa Poll shows