More polls continue to show the U.S. presidential candidates separated by the thinnest of margins with Election Day less than 50 days away.
Prognosticator Nate Silver on Tuesday shared dat a that showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in the national polls average by almost three full percentage points, 48.9% to 46%.
Although Harris has a three-point lead nationally, Silver’s Electoral College forecast shows Harris has an almost 25% chance of winning the popular vote and losing the Electoral College vote.
As of Tuesday, Silver’s Electoral College forecast shows former President Trump with a 56.2% chance of winning the electoral college compared to Harris’ 43.5% chance of winning.
Silver's projections are a departure from other election forecasts, notably from Silver’s former company FiveThirtyEight , which as of Tuesday give Harris a 61% chance of winning the Electoral College, an almost 18-point swing between both forecasters.
USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll shows Harris ahead in Pennsylvania
In a poll released on Monday by USA TODAY/Suffolk University, Harris led Trump by three points in Pennsylvania, 49% to 46%.
The statewide poll of 500 likely Pennsylvania voters has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, showing that although Harris holds a lead, the state is still up in the air.
The poll also found that voters in Pennsylvania have a more favorable view of the vice president compared to Trump, with 49% of voters having a good opinion of Harris and 43% having the same opinion of the former president.
Monday’s poll also found that Harris is ahead in two critical counties, Erie and Northampton.
National polling by USA TODAY/Suffolk University shows Harris with lead
The vice president not only leads Trump in Pennsylvania but also leads the race nationally, according to a poll released by USA TODAY/Suffolk University on Monday.
Harris has seen an eight-point turnaround for the Democratic ticket after President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance in June. The poll showed Harris leading Trump 47.6% to 43.3% nationally.
Harris' lead of more than four points is a stark contrast to a poll conducted in June that showed Trump holding a commanding lead of almost four points over Biden.
Harris has seen a 24-point swing among young voters, an 18-point swing among Hispanic voters and a 17-point swing among Black voters, the poll said.
The betting markets put their money behind Harris
The race has been turned on its head not only in the polls but also in the betting markets, with Harris being favored by bettors to win in November.
Betfair Exchange, the biggest peer-to-peer U.K. betting platform, and Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform have Harris ahead of Trump with leads of 5 and 2 points respectively.
The odds represent a significant change for Trump, who, during the Republican National Convention, had odds of up to 70% on Betfair to win the presidency. Tuesday, Trump's odds to win stood at 45%, a drop of more than 30 points since July.
Fernando Cervantes Jr. is a trending news reporter for USA TODAY. Reach him at fernando.cervantes@gannett.com and follow him on X @fern_cerv_.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: More polls show Harris leading Trump, but Nate Silver sees popular, electoral vote split
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