This story was updated t o add new information.
Much like Democratic presidential candidates in 2016 and 2020, Vice President Kamala Harris has moved the needle in her favor on betting markets and in polling following last week's debate with former President Donald Trump.
The shift in the 2024 presidential race offshore-betting odds is more muted than Trump's other opening debates. Still, in the few percentage points he's ceded, bettors now say Harris is more likely to win, according to Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform. The presidential election betting can't be done legally in the U.S.
Trump's and Harris' likelihood of winning were knotted at 49% as the debate ended . After moving slightly in Trump's favor the following morning, Polymarket bettors have given Harris a better chance of winning. Her probability stood at 51% to Trump's 48% as of 9:00 a.m. EDT Saturday.
How election odds moved following presidential debates
The likelihood that Harris will win has swung as much as eight percentage points during the past week, according to Polymarket. It's a smaller shift in the days following a first debate than in Trump's three previous first meetings.
Unable to view our graphics? Click here to see them .
No second Trump-Harris debate. No big deal
Trump and Harris seem unlikely to meet on stage again after Trump said in Truth Social post last week that "there will be no third debate!" A vice presidential debate is scheduled for Oct. 1. Still, bettors on Polymarket give a second Harris-Trump debate at least a 30% chance.
A second debate would likely have little value for either candidate, though. First debates have had the biggest impact on polling and betting odds in the past four election cycles, according to Real Clear Politics and data provided to USA TODAY by Betfair, the biggest U.K. peer-to-peer betting platform.
2024 polling averages give Harris slight edge in recent weeks
Like the betting odds, polling averages synthesized by Real Clear Politics have risen about a percentage point in Harris' favor following the Sept. 10 debate. Trump's polling has been largely unchanged.
Betting odds didn't predict Trump's 2016 victory
While the numbers have turned in Harris' favor again, Trump remains a few percentage points away. That gap is much smaller than he's faced in betting markets during his two previous presidential runs, according to Betfair.
Betfair odds even had Hillary Clinton with an 81% likelihood of winning on Election Day in 2016. The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization. The only other time bettors failed to predict the winner: 1948 when Democrat Harry Truman beat 8-to-1 odds to defeat Republican Thomas Dewey.
How Harris' and Trump's odds of winning the 2024 presidential election changed
Little change in Trump's odds following foiled assassination
It's worth noting that the assassination attempt on Trump before the Republican National Convention drove the odds of Trump winning up to 71%, his highest levels recorded on Polymarket or Betfair. Trump's odds of winning were largely unchanged following the past weekend's apparent assassination attempt while he was golfing in West Palm Beach, Florida.
Contributing: James Powel
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Who has the best betting odds to win, Harris or Trump? See who leads since debate
Local News
