Hurricane forecasters eye brewing system in the Caribbean

Hurricane forecasters are watching a new potential storm as the Atlantic hurricane season motors past its halfway point. So far, the season hasn't logged an exceptional number of storms, despite early warnings of a hyperactive season.

Hurricane forecasters have turned their attention to the Caribbean Sea, where an area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early next week, the National Hurricane Center said. The hurricane center said some slow development of this system is possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

The season continues to sputter along and is over halfway done. So far, the number of storms (seven) is slightly below average, while the number of hurricanes (four) is about average. For a variety of reasons, the season has yet to live up to many preseason predictions.

"There is a growing signal among long-range global model ensembles that the next storm could start brewing in the western Caribbean in the coming days," said University of Miami meteorologist Brian McNoldy on his blog.

If the system, which has yet to form, becomes a named storm, it would be Tropical Storm Helene, the eighth named storm of the 2024 season.

What is the Central American gyre?

The system in question is expected to form using energy from what forecasters call the Central American gyre , which is a type of large but weak, slow-spinning storm set up over Central America, AccuWeather said.

The gyre can be an early and late-season source of tropical development, Weather.com said. This mid-season development is somewhat unusual, experts said, but it could help spawn a storm that could affect the U.S.

"Given how warm waters typically are in the region and energy from the Central America gyre, there is the potential for any system that forms over the western Caribbean to the central Gulf to quickly intensify and track into the U.S.," AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said.

Where could the storm go?

Computer models have a wide range of outcomes for the system: There is a "solid signal for development, but lots of spread in where it might end up," noted NOAA meteorologist Andy Hazelton on social platform X. "Lots of moving parts and uncertainty with these Central American gyre setups. Good idea to at least review your hurricane plan if you're anywhere from S FL to the Western Gulf."

NOAA meteorologist Tomer Berg said on X that "There’s been plenty of talk about a potential tropical cyclone in the Caribbean & Gulf next week." While there is a legitimate signal for a storm, the details are less clear, admits Berg, who warns against fixating on any single model run, some of which show a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

Remnants of Gordon still out there

The remnants of what had been Tropical Storm Gordon continue to spin out in the Atlantic, far from land. Forecasters say it could regenerate over the next few days: "Environmental conditions could become more conducive for development later this week, and a tropical depression or storm could re-form in a few days while the system moves slowly northward over the central subtropical Atlantic," the National Hurricane Center said.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane forecasters eye brewing system in the Caribbean