The New York Mets (87-71) and the Milwaukee Brewers (92-68) play the middle contest of a 3-game series Saturday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's MLB odds around the Mets vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Brewers lead 4-0, including a sweep of the season-opening series March 29-31
The Brewers doubled up the Mets 8-4 in Friday's series opener to easily cash the Over (7.5). Milwaukee, the National League Central Division champ, is locked into the No. 3 seed in the postseason.
Milwaukee is 4-1 across the past 5 games, including victories in the past 2 home contests, while the Over holds a slight 3-2 edge in the 5-game span.
The Mets have dropped 2 in a row, including a key 5-1 loss in Atlanta Tuesday, and it has an identical 87-71 like the Braves with 4 games to go, and a makeup doubleheader looming in Atlanta Monday.
New York has cashed the Over at a 6-2 pace in the past 8 games, while the Mets have seen the total go high at a 9-4-1 clip in the previous 14 contests.
Mets at Brewers projected starters
LHP Jose Quintana vs. LHP Jared Koenig
Quintana (10-9, 3.74 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 166 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 10-0 home victory vs. Washington Nationals Sept. 18
- 2024 road splits: 5-4, 3.84 ERA, 82 IP, 35 ER, 72 H, 5 HR, 32 BB, 60 K, .238 opponents' batting average (OBA), 1.27 WHIP in 15 starts
- Last 7 games: 4-1, 2.63 ERA, 41 IP, 12 ER, 35 H, 15 BB, 24 K, 1.22 WHIP
- Career vs. Brewers: 9-6, 2.94 ERA, 125 2/3 IP, 41 ER, 99 H, 14 HR, 34 BB, 122 K, 1.06 WHIP, 8.7 K/9
Koenig (9-4, 2.51 ERA) makes his 6th start and 55th appearance. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 61 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 0 K in 3-1 home win vs. Cincinnati Reds June 15 (9 pitches)
- 2024 home splits: 5-2, 3.00 ERA, 33 IP, 11 ER, 3 HR, 12 BB, 40 K, .219 OBA, 1.21 WHIP in 1 start (28 appearances)
- Last 7 games: 1-1, 4.50 ERA, 8 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 5 BB, 6 K, 1.50 WHIP in 7 relief appearances
- Career vs. Mets: No-decision, 3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 2 K (56 pitches) in home relief appearance Sept. 25, 2022
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Mets at Brewers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook ; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds . Lines last updated at 11:25 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML) : Mets -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Brewers -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Mets -1.5 (+155) | Brewers +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U) : 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Mets at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 4, Brewers 3
The METS (-105) were unable to get the job done Friday, and they slipped into a tie with the Braves for the final postseason spot. New York needs to show a little more urgency after getting doubled up in the series opener.
The Brewers (-115) use the opener Koenig, and then they'll turn it over to the bullpen. With the No. 3 seed locked in, Milwaukee won't be grinding nearly as hard to get it done as New York will be.
PASS.
The run line has swapped sides Saturday morning, and I'm not confident in a multi-run finish.
UNDER 8 (+100) is the lean, but go very, very lightly.
The Over is on a 6-2 run for the Mets, but the Under is 2-1 in the previous 3 outings. For the Brewers, the Under has a slight 6-4 edge in the past 10 contests. The Under is 16-13-1 in Quintana's 30 previous starts in 2024, too.
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This article originally appeared on USA Today Sportsbookwire: New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions
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