The LA Dodgers welcome the San Diego Padres to Dodger Stadium Saturday for the first of their best-of-5 NLDS series. First pitch is set for 8:38 p.m. ET (FS1). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's MLB odds around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Playoffs series: 0-0; season series: Padres won 8-5
The Dodgers won the NL West and finished with the top seed in the entire league. Los Angeles finished the regular season on fire, winning 5 straight, 2 of those of which were against the Padres. It scored double digits in 2 of its last 3 games. The Dodgers were the second-best home team in the majors, ending with a 52-28 record. They won 5 of their last 7 at home. Los Angeles is led by DH Shohei Ohtani , who ended the season with a team-high 54 home runs and 130 RBIs.
The Padres, who finished 2nd in the NL West, had the best record of any non-division winner. They beat the Atlanta Braves in back-to-back games at home to advance to the NLDS. They won those games a combined 9-4 and have won 4 of their last 5 games, including the playoffs. They lost RHP Joe Musgrove in the process, though, and he'll miss all of next season due to Tommy John surgery. San Diego has won 6 of its last 9 games on the road. It is led by 3B Manny Machado , who finished the regular season with 29 home runs and 105 RBIs.
Padres at Dodgers projected starters
RHP Dylan Cease vs. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Cease (14-11, 3.47 ERA) made 33 starts in 2024. He ended with a 1.07 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 189 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 4-3 road loss to the Dodgers Sept. 25
- 2024 away stats: 8-4, 3.83 ERA (103 1/3 IP, 44 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 in 19 starts
- Career vs. Dodgers: 1-1, 2.61 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.45 WHIP, 12.2 K/9 in 4 starts
Yamamoto (7-2, 3.00 ERA) made 18 starts this season. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 90 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 13-2 road win over the Colorado Rockies Saturday
- 2024 home stats: 3-1, 3.88 ERA (46 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 in 10 starts
- Career vs. Padres: 0-1, 12.00 ERA (6 IP, 8 ER), 1.67 WHIP, 12.0 K/9 in 2 starts
Padres at Dodgers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook ; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds . Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML) : Padres +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Dodgers -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Padres +1.5 (-190) | Dodgers -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U) : 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Padres at Dodgers picks and predictions
Prediction
Dodgers 4, Padres 2
BET DODGERS (-140) .
The Dodgers have performed well recently with Yamamoto on the mound. They have won his last 3 starts. Los Angeles also has bats that are red hot, scoring a total of 26 in its last 3-game series and even putting up 11 on the Padres in their 2 games before that. The Dodgers have also been among the best in the country at home, so they should get a boost from that as well.
The Padres had the kryptonite for most of the season against the Dodgers, but they won just 2 of 5 to close the regular season and has their Wild Card series at home as well. San Diego has scored 5 or fewer runs in 9 straight games and has scored 3 or fewer in 3 of its last 7. Couple it all together and back DODGERS (-140) .
PASS .
The Dodgers are the run-line favorite here, but 4 of the 13 games between the 2 teams were 1-run games. They aren't worth playing on the spread. The Padres are far too expensive as a run-line underdog as well.
Avoid the spread and take a moneyline option.
BET UNDER 7.5 (-105).
At this level, both teams have strong starting pitchers taking the mound. That said, the Dodgers have gone Under in 3 of their last 6 games and have allowed 2 or fewer in 3 of their last 4.
While their offense has been hot, in their last series against the Padres, the Dodgers scored just 13 runs in all 3 games. The Padres split their Wild Card series 1-1 O/U and are 3-6 O/U in their last 9 games.
Take UNDER 7.5 (-105) .
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now !
For more sports betting picks and tips , check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW .
Follow @nathanbeighle_ on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook .
Fantasy baseball help from BaseballHQ.com :
Subscribe now to dominate the competition.
DraftKings Promo Code | Grab $200 Instant Bonus for College Football, MLB Divisional Playoffs
ESPN BET Promo SBWIRE: Score $1000 Bonus for MLB Divisional Openers, Top 25 CFB & More
bet365 Bonus Code SBKWIRE | Score $1000 Bonus for College Football Top 25, MLB Playoffs
This article originally appeared on USA Today Sportsbookwire: NLDS Game 1: San Diego Padres at LA Dodgers odds, picks and predictions
Local News
Comments / 0