'Reverse storm surge': How Hurricane Milton could flood Tampa Bay or shockingly dry it

Depending on where Hurricane Milton lands , the Tampa Bay area could be flooded with a huge storm surge — or it could have its bay sucked dry of water.

The "reverse" storm surge phenomenon – which exposes sand, silt and debris typically covered by water – is truly one of the strangest results of a hurricane, and Tampa Bay is especially vulnerable, experts say.

It happened in Florida during Hurricanes Irma and Ian, and it could happen this week too, if Milton makes landfall to the south of Tampa Bay, said WeatherTiger meteorologist Ryan Truchelut. As of Tuesday morning, the forecast track of the center of Milton shows it hitting land just to the south of Tampa Bay, the National Hurricane Center said. But that track is subject to change as the storm approaches.

What is reverse storm surge?

Storm surge happens as a tropical storm or hurricane pushes water toward the coast, triggering catastrophic flooding along the shore, and in bays and inlets.

With reverse storm surge, especially in larger storms, the opposite happens, explained AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok in 2022, after Ian hit. “It can pull the water out because the wind flow is coming from land to ocean, and it pushes the water,” he said. “The power of the wind is incredible.”

The result is bare ground in some places, particularly along the shoreline, according to Pastelok.

The phenomenon can occur during any hurricane, whether it makes landfall along the eastern U.S. coast or in the Gulf, according to the National Weather Service office in the Tampa Bay area.

Why does it happen?

Storm surge can happen near and to the right of where a storm makes landfall, but negative water levels can occur to the left of the landfall location, said weather service meteorologist Ernie Jillson in 2022. Tampa Bay was on the left side of where Ian made landfall as its winds blew from the northeast, he said.

It depends on the shape of the waterway, and bays are more susceptible because they're like a bowl of water,” Jillson told USA TODAY. “They're protected by land on all sides except one, so that's why they're so susceptible to being emptied out.”

How dramatic the phenomenon appears depends on the storm's intensity, according to Pastelok.

'Like a bathtub let the water out'

When reverse storm surge hit Florida during Hurricane Ian in 2022, one resident said of a waterless Ochlockonee Bay, "It was just like a bathtub let the water out," Donna Bourgeois said. "Just, it was gone."

On Twitter, now X, Tammy Young wrote, "The fact that all the water disappears from #tampabay before the storm comes is mind blowing."

In St. Marks, Florida, Kathleen Spehar said, "If the sea became a desert, what would it be like? That was the feeling of being out there," she said. "It was beautiful, blue clouds, yet desolate."

"It was a little bit creepy that the storm was so powerful that it could suck up and dry out that entire bay area," she added.

Contributing: Ashley R. Williams, USA TODAY; Ana Goñi-Lessan, Tallahassee Democrat

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 'Reverse storm surge': How Hurricane Milton could flood Tampa Bay or shockingly dry it