Why historian who accurately predicts elections says October surprise is a 'myth'
By Sudiksha Kochi, USA TODAY,
3 hours ago
WASHINGTON - Allan Lichtman, the historian who correctly predicted nine of the ten most recent presidential elections, said in an interview that any October surprise that could upend the 2024 presidential race is a “myth.”
Lichtman predicted last month that Vice President Kamala Harris would win. He based his prediction off thirteen keys, or “big picture true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House Party,” according to the New York Times.
His latest remarks come as Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck in some national and state polls. Experts say that the race could be very tight.
LEFT: Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump smiles while speaking on a panel of the National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ) convention in Chicago, Illinois, on July 31, 2024. RIGHT: Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris addresses members of the National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ) in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on September 17, 2024. Vincent Alban, Reuters / Piroschka Van De Wouw, Reuters
“I don’t change my prediction and response to the polls,” Lichtman said on NewsNation Monday. “If I did, I would have been dead wrong about 2016. I would have been dead wrong about 2020 and the polls turned against Obama around this time in October.”
Lichtman added that his system is based on the “fundamental forces that drive elections.”
“That is, it’s governing, not campaigning that counts and the keys gauge the strength and performance of the White House party and this whole idea of an October surprise is a huge myth,” he said. “I’ve always made my predictions before then, and never change them.”
The thirteen keys include whether:
◾ The White House party gained House seats during the midterm elections.
◾ The sitting president is running for reelection.
◾ The White House party is avoiding a primary contest.
◾ There is a third-party challenger.
◾ The short-term economy is strong.
◾ The long-term economic growth has been as good as the last two terms.
◾ The White House party has made major changes to national policy.
◾ There is sustained social unrest during the term.
◾ The White House is untainted by scandal
◾ The challenger is uncharismatic.
◾ The incumbent is charismatic.
◾ The White House party has a major failure in foreign policy.
◾ The White House party has foreign policy success.
Lichtman said last month that eight keys are in favor of Harris, while three are in favor of Trump.
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