The UCF Knights (3-3, 1-2 Big 12) and the No. 12 Iowa State Cyclones (6-0, 3-0) meet Saturday at Jack Trice Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (FS1). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the UCF vs. Iowa State odds , and make our expert college football picks and predictions .
UCF dropped its 3rd straight game, recently falling to the Cincinnati 19-13 at home. The Knights lost outright as 2.5-point favorites with the Under (58) cashing. QB
Jacurri Brown threw for 207 yards, with 114 of those going to WR
Kobe Hudson , who notched his third 100-yard game of the season, along with Brown’s lone touchdown pass. Brown also contributed on the ground, rushing for 84 yards, but it wasn’t enough to secure a victory for UCF.
Iowa State moved to 6-0 for the first time since 1938 with a 28-16 win at West Virginia. The Cyclones covered as 3-point favorites and the Under (53.5) hit. Their defense stood out once again -- it ranks 5th in the country in least points allowed per game at 11.0. On offense, RB Carson Hansen powered through with 96 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns, while QB Rocco Becht contributed 265 passing yards and a score. This balanced effort helped keep the Cyclones' perfect season intact.
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UCF vs. Iowa State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook ; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds . Lines last updated at 10:41 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML) : UCF +425 (bet $100 to win $425) | Iowa State -600 (bet $600 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS) : UCF +13.5 (-110) | Iowa State -13.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U) : 50.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
UCF vs. Iowa State picks and predictions
Prediction
Iowa State 35, UCF 14
PASS .
Iowa State (-600) will keep this train rolling Saturday night in Ames, but I'm not betting 6 units to win 1 in return. I’ll take my bet to the spread.
BET IOWA STATE -13.5 ( -110 ).
The Cyclones are off to a perfect 6-0 start, playing like the best team in the conference. They’re coming off a tough win in Morgantown, and now they return to Ames, a notoriously tough place to play.
UCF is struggling, currently on a 3-game losing streak. The Knights have been shaky in the past 2 Octobers, failing to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month. Their quarterback situation is unstable and the offense has been out of sync. Facing Iowa State’s 15th-ranked defense in yards allowed is a tough challenge for any team, especially on the road and let alone one with so much instability.
Meanwhile, Iowa State has been solid, with QB Rocco Becht managing the offense well and receiving plenty of support from a dominant defense.
This looks like a great spot for Iowa State to control the game and cover the spread comfortably. TAKE IOWA STATE -13.5 (- 110 ).
BET UNDER 50.5 ( -110 ).
UCF's offense has struggled lately, scoring just 13 points in each of its last 2 games, which has led to a significant drop in its O/U lines. Three of UCF’s last 4 games as an underdog have hit the Under. Plus, the Under is 4-1 in the Knights' last 5 road games.
Iowa State’s defense has been a strong point, contributing to 4 of its last 5 October home games going Under. Even though UCF's defense isn't elite, it's been solid, holding opponents like Cincinnati to 19 points last week. Additionally, UCF’s run-heavy approach — averaging 48.2 rushing attempts per game — should keep the clock running and limit scoring opportunities.
With both teams leaning toward a slower pace and defensive play, the total of 49.5 feels a bit high. The UNDER 50.5 (- 110 ) looks like the smart bet here.
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