Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

The Houston Astros (60-55) visit the Boston Red Sox (61-53) Saturday afternoon. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Astros lead 1-0.

The Astros have won 3 games in a row after taking down the Red Sox 8-4 Friday and covering as +115 road underdogs. 2B Jose Altuve and C Yainer Diaz each had 2 RBIs while RHP Kaleb Ort allowed 0 ER in 1 1/3 innings to pick up the win.

Boston has lost back-to-back games after Friday’s loss while failing to cover as a -125 home favorite. SS David Hamilton had a team-high 2 RBIs while RHP Lucas Sims allowed 4 ER in 1/3 innings to pick up the loss.

Astros at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Spencer Arrighetti vs. RHP Josh Winckowski

Arrighetti (4-10, 5.33 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 98 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 12 K in 1-0 loss against Tampa Bay Rays Sunday.
• Debuting April 10th, 2024, Saturday will be his first career appearance against the Red Sox.
• Home/road splits: 1-6, 6.61 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 10 road starts; 3-4, 4.11 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 11.6 K/9 in 10 home starts

Winckowski (2-1, 3.44 ERA) makes his 6th start and 25th appearance. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 through 49 2/3 innings.

• Last start: 3 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 14-4 loss at New York Yankees July 6th.
• He has appeared in 9 games as a reliever since his last start.
• Career vs. Astros: 0-0, 2.25 ERA (4 IP, 2 ER), 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 3 appearances — last outing in 2023.

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Astros at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:15 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Red Sox -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+155) | Red Sox +1.5 (-190)
• Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Astros at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 7, Astros 5

BET RED SOX (-120).

Boston has scored 4 or more runs in 9 of its last 10 games and is 2-2 in its last 4 home games. It faces Arrighetti, who is just 4-10 this season with a 5.33 ERA. The Astros have scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 of their last 10 which will not be enough to keep up with the Red Sox Saturday.

PASS.

The moneyline is better value for the Red Sox.

BET OVER 10.5 (+100).

Boston has hit the Over in 9 of its last 10 games while scoring 4 or more runs in each of those 9 games. It has scored 6 or more runs in 6 of its last 10 while allowing 5 or more in 8 of its last 10. Houston has allowed 4 or more runs in 7 of its last 10.

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